NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Trevor Lawrence QB

JAX vs PHI · Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

225.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 210.8
Graph avg: 230.4
Graph median: 228.0153–330
Over the close: 55%11/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds210.8▼-23.4

Att26.0▼-6.8

Cmp%69.2%▲+8.4

Pass TD2.0▲+0.2

INT0.5▼-0.3

Rush Yds8.5▼-13.2

Snaps57.2▼-7.8

Snap %95.8%▼-1.1

2025

222

Sep 21
174

Sep 28
221

Oct 06
258

Oct 12
296

Oct 19
220

Nov 02
158

Nov 09
153

Nov 16
256

Nov 23
229

Nov 30
244

Dec 07
330

Dec 14
279

Dec 21
263

Dec 28
255

Jan 04
207

Jan 11
2026

245

Sep 13
189

Sep 20
182

Sep 27
227

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 225.5

Home 47% 8/17 · avg 230.8
Away 47% 7/15 · avg 211.9
vs PHI 0% 0/1 · avg 169.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 205.5 75% 15/20
O 215.5 70% 14/20
O 225.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 235.5 45% 9/20
O 245.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds190.7#30
Yds/Att6.3#28
Cmp%60.1%#25
Pass TD0.8#30
Pass Att30.1#27

QBs vs PHI · 2026

Each main QB who faced PHI this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+14.2

Avg diff %+5%

Beat their average100% (2/2)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Matthew Stafford	317	290.7	+9%
Sep 20	Cam Ward	183	181.0	+1%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	5%16.9 yds	8%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.5 yds	16%6.2 yds	28%7.6 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%8.9 yds#22	4%19.6 yds#5	8%10.2 yds#20
Short	32%5.8 yds#16	19%6.0 yds#24	34%4.6 yds#28

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	5%16.9 yds	8%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.4 yds	15%6.3 yds	28%7.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	4	6.5	26	25.7%
2	Brenton Strange TE	4	4.5	18	18.7%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	4	3.8	15	15.0%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	4	3.5	14	13.8%
5	Bhayshul Tuten RB	4	1.8	7	7.0%
6	Josh Cameron WR	4	1.5	6	6.4%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	3	1.3	4	5.7%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	3	1.0	3	3.7%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	4	0.8	3	3.0%
10	Quintin Morris TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 225.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	227	Over	258.5	61 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	182	Under	228.5	59 (95%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	189	Under	224.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	245	Over	234.5	50 (88%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	207	Under	222.5	56 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	255	Over	246.5	50 (82%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	263	Over	280.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	279	Over	220.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	330	Over	218.5	54 (87%)
2025-12-07	14	vs IND	244	Over	210.5	58 (91%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TEN	229	Over	221.5	60 (95%)
2025-11-23	12	@ ARI	256	Over	225.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs LAC	153	Under	160.5	63 (89%)
2025-11-09	10	@ HOU	158	Under	201.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LV	220	Under	190.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LA	296	Over	295.5	77 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SEA	258	Over	291.5	76 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	vs KC	221	Under	200.5	58 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ SF	174	Under	180.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs HOU	222	Under	215.5	70 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 225.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 11m ago.