NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tony Pollard RB

TEN vs HOU · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

50.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 55.2
Graph avg: 62.1
Graph median: 58.018–161
Over the close: 45%9/20

2026 per game

Carries13.5▼-0.7

Rush Yds55.2▼-8.4

Rush TD0.2-0.0

Targets2.8▲+0.3

Rec2.0▲+0.1

Rec Yds6.0▼-6.1

Snaps30.2▼-8.4

Snap %53.2%▼-9.2

2025

92

Sep 14
45

Sep 21
64

Sep 28
67

Oct 05
34

Oct 12
18

Oct 19
44

Oct 26
56

Nov 02
22

Nov 16
20

Nov 23
60

Nov 30
161

Dec 07
104

Dec 14
102

Dec 21
85

Dec 28
48

Jan 04
2026

35

Sep 13
64

Sep 20
74

Sep 27
48

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 50.5

Home 58% 11/19 · avg 58.9
Away 61% 11/18 · avg 70.1
vs HOU 75% 3/4 · avg 66.8

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 40.5 75% 15/20
O 45.5 65% 13/20
O 50.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 55.5 55% 11/20
O 60.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds75.3#27
Yds/Carry3.5#30
Rush TD0.5#23
Targets5.5#14
Rec Yds26.5#25

RBs vs HOU · 2026

Each main RB who faced HOU this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-11.3

Avg diff %+6%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Javonte Williams	62	53.5	+16%
Sep 27	Jonathan Taylor	68	95.0	-28%
Sep 20	Chase Brown	80	42.3	+89%
Sep 13	James Cook	57	121.3	-53%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%5.7 yds	2%12.0 yds	6%15.8 yds
Short	34%5.0 yds	10%4.6 yds	41%4.3 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.1 yds#8	3%23.1 yds#4	7%13.7 yds#6
Short	27%5.2 yds#26	19%6.6 yds#19	34%5.0 yds#24

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	36%3.4 yds	18%3.2 yds	43%3.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	4	8.0	32	29.9%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	4	5.8	23	19.1%
3	Gunnar Helm TE	4	3.0	12	11.2%
4	Elic Ayomanor WR	4	2.5	10	10.1%
5	Tony Pollard RB	4	2.8	11	9.7%
6	Tyjae Spears RB	4	1.8	7	7.4%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	3	1.7	5	7.3%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	4	1.2	5	4.7%
9	Chimere Dike WR	4	0.8	3	2.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 50.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	48	Under	48.5	34 (53%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	74	Over	59.5	32 (53%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	64	Over	40.5	29 (55%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	35	Under	49.5	26 (52%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	48	Under	67.5	34 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	85	Over	81.5	37 (50%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	102	Over	57.5	40 (55%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	104	Over	98.5	28 (53%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	161	Over	164.5	39 (59%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	60	Over	55.5	27 (46%)
2025-11-23	12	vs SEA	20	Under	20.5	39 (51%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	22	Under	41.5	29 (49%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	56	Over	56.5	29 (62%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	44	Under	30.5	33 (46%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	18	Under	45.5	30 (57%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	34	Under	35.5	26 (43%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	67	Over	54.5	49 (73%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	64	Over	65.5	43 (86%)
2025-09-21	3	vs IND	45	Under	67.5	64 (91%)
2025-09-14	2	vs LA	92	Over	66.5	59 (89%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 49.5Underdog 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 13m ago.