NFL Prop Research

JA

Jordan Addison WR

MIN vs NO · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

40.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

BookCaesars · 40.5Fanatics · 40.5FanDuel · 40.5DraftKings · 40.5BetMGM · 39.5ESPN BET · 39.5Bally Bet · 39.5

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg

40.8

Graph avg

40.1

Graph median

32.00–128

Over the close

47%8/17

2026 per game

Targets5.5▼-0.1

Rec2.8▼-0.2

Rec Yds40.8▼-2.8

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps58.2▲+7.2

Snap %91.2%▲+6.1

Splits all logged games · over 40.5

• Home 60% 9/15 · avg 51.2
• Away 42% 8/19 · avg 47.8
• vs NO No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

• O 30.5 50% 10/20
• O 35.5 45% 9/20
• O 40.5 Today 40% 8/20
• O 45.5 35% 7/20
• O 50.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs NO

What NO allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds114.7#31
• Receptions9.4#31
• Targets16.1#27
• Yds/Target7.1#29
• Rec TD0.8#16

WRs vs NO · 2026

Each main WR who faced NO this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-3.4

Avg diff %+26%

Beat their average38% (3/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 05	ATL Drake London	96	91.3	+5%
Oct 05	ATL Jahan Dotson	54	13.7	+295%
Sep 27	LV Tre Tucker	43	63.3	-32%
Sep 27	LV Cody White	4	20.0	-80%
Sep 20	BAL Chris Moore	6	28.5	-79%
Sep 20	BAL Rashod Bateman	88	27.7	+218%
Sep 13	DET Amon-Ra St. Brown	67	78.7	-15%
Sep 13	DET Isaac TeSlaa	0	62.3	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.4 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%6.9 yds
Short	26%4.6 yds	18%7.0 yds	35%5.2 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NO defense

NO defense: Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.7 yds#26	2%16.0 yds#15	7%12.2 yds#10
Short	33%6.3 yds#9	13%6.7 yds#17	37%4.6 yds#29

Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	27%16.1 yds	4%0.0 yds	8%0.0 yds
Short	25%5.1 yds	12%7.8 yds	23%4.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · MIN 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	3	5.7	17	26.2%
2	T.J. Hockenson TE	4	6.5	26	24.5%
3	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	4	3.8	15	13.1%
5	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
6	Tai Felton WR	2	1.5	3	5.5%
7	Jauan Jennings WR	3	1.3	4	5.1%
8	DeeJay Dallas RB	4	0.8	3	3.2%
9	Gavin Bartholomew TE	1	1.0	1	3.0%
10	Myles Price WR	4	0.8	3	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 40.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs MIA	52	Over	62.5	75 (96%)
2026-09-27	3	@ TB	90	Over	36.5	58 (98%)
2026-09-20	2	@ CHI	21	Under	39.5	46 (88%)
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	0	Under	42.5	54 (83%)
2026-01-04	18	vs GB	8	Under	17.5	62 (93%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DET	0	Under	42.5	42 (78%)
2025-12-21	16	@ NYG	26	Under	39.5	41 (67%)
2025-12-14	15	@ DAL	66	Over	66.5	35 (64%)
2025-12-07	14	vs WAS	62	Over	41.5	43 (67%)
2025-11-30	13	@ SEA	36	Under	25.5	48 (92%)
2025-11-23	12	@ GB	0	Under	—	43 (98%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CHI	20	Under	6.5	53 (96%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BAL	35	Under	15.5	62 (95%)
2025-11-02	9	@ DET	48	Over	50.5	57 (92%)
2025-10-23	8	@ LAC	26	Under	35.5	42 (86%)
2025-10-19	7	vs PHI	128	Over	48.5	64 (93%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CLE	41	Over	30.5	49 (75%)
2025-09-28	4	@ PIT	114	Over	35.5	73 (96%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	@ LA	29	Under	—	68 (92%)
2025-01-05	18	@ DET	0	Under	—	58 (89%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 40.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.