NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brock Purdy QB

SF vs SEA · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

225.5 Pass Yds O -111U -121

Hit rate · All 63%19/30 Odds imply 49.0% Over

Season avg: 251.8
Graph avg: 248.0
Graph median: 261.094–377
Over the close: 33%5/15

2026 per game

Pass Yds251.8▲+18.2

Att28.2▼-2.8

Cmp%69.9%▲+2.7

Pass TD2.8▲+0.8

INT0.2▼-0.9

Rush Yds30.5▲+11.6

Snaps57.2▼-5.1

Snap %96.2%▼-0.6

2024

231

Sep 09
319

Sep 15
292

Sep 22
288

Sep 29
244

Oct 06
255

Oct 10
212

Oct 20
260

Oct 27
353

Nov 10
159

Nov 17
94

Dec 01
325

Dec 08
142

Dec 12
313

Dec 22
377

Dec 30
2025

277

Sep 07
309

Sep 28
200

Nov 16
193

Nov 24
168

Nov 30
295

Dec 14
295

Dec 22
303

Dec 28
127

Jan 03
262

Jan 11
140

Jan 17
2026

205

Sep 10
287

Sep 20
297

Sep 27
218

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 225.5

Home 65% 11/17 · avg 251.0
Away 62% 8/13 · avg 244.1
vs SEA 40% 2/5 · avg 191.6

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 205.5 70% 21/30
O 215.5 67% 20/30
O 225.5 Today 63% 19/30
O 235.5 60% 18/30
O 245.5 57% 17/30

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds209.6#25
Yds/Att6.3#29
Cmp%62.0%#19
Pass TD1.4#17
Pass Att33.2#9

QBs vs SEA · 2026

Each main QB who faced SEA this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-27.2

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Justin Herbert	189	209.0	-10%
Sep 27	Marcus Mariota	183	78.5	+133%
Sep 20	Jacoby Brissett	95	241.0	-61%
Sep 09	Drake Maye	178	225.3	-21%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.8 yds	5%30.1 yds	4%12.2 yds
Short	38%7.1 yds	19%6.8 yds	27%5.7 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.5 yds#24	3%30.0 yds#1	9%10.2 yds#23
Short	31%5.1 yds#27	18%4.9 yds#30	32%4.6 yds#30

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.3 yds	5%30.1 yds	4%10.8 yds
Short	39%7.1 yds	18%7.0 yds	27%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	4	6.0	24	21.4%
2	George Kittle TE	4	5.5	22	20.3%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	4	5.5	22	19.8%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	4	4.2	17	15.1%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	1	1.0	1	3.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	4	0.8	3	2.8%
10	Luke Farrell TE	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 30 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 225.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	218	Under	236.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	297	Over	235.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	287	Over	238.5	44 (85%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	205	Under	240.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	140	Under	227.5	51 (85%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	262	Over	267.5	59 (100%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	127	Under	243.5	42 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	303	Over	290.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	295	Over	295.5	63 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	295	Over	289.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	168	Under	168.5	63 (94%)
2025-11-24	12	vs CAR	193	Under	193.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ARI	200	Under	200.5	50 (91%)
2025-09-28	4	vs JAX	309	Over	339.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ SEA	277	Over	244.5	76 (100%)
2024-12-30	17	vs DET	377	Over	—	59 (92%)
2024-12-22	16	@ MIA	313	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-12	15	vs LA	142	Under	—	54 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CHI	325	Over	—	57 (93%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BUF	94	Under	—	48 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs SEA	159	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ TB	353	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs DAL	260	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs KC	212	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-10-10	6	@ SEA	255	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs ARI	244	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NE	288	Over	—	63 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ LA	292	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ MIN	319	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-09	1	vs NYJ	231	Over	—	71 (99%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 225.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Caesars, updated 15m ago.