NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kendrick Bourne WR

ARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

23.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 36.0
Graph avg: 34.6
Graph median: 22.00–142
Over the close: 18%2/11

2026 per game

Targets4.7▲+1.0

Rec4.0▲+1.5

Rec Yds36.0▼-0.7

Rec TD0.0+0.0

Snaps42.7▲+2.7

Snap %60.7%▼-0.3

2024

22

Dec 28
12

Jan 05
2025

32

Sep 14
38

Sep 21
17

Sep 28
142

Oct 02
142

Oct 12
14

Oct 19
44

Oct 26
34

Nov 02
19

Nov 09
0

Nov 30
17

Dec 14
27

Dec 22
25

Dec 28
0

Jan 03
0

Jan 17
2026

75

Sep 13
11

Sep 20
22

Sep 27
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 23.5

Home 27% 4/15 · avg 19.9
Away 67% 10/15 · avg 44.3
vs DET No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 13.5 75% 15/20
O 18.5 60% 12/20
O 23.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 28.5 35% 7/20
O 33.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs DET

What DET allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds181.9#2
Receptions13.4#3
Targets19.9#6
Yds/Target9.1#7
Rec TD1.1#7

WRs vs DET · 2026

Each main WR who faced DET this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+27.0

Avg diff %+37%

Beat their average75% (6/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tetairoa McMillan	192	64.3	+198%
Oct 04	Brycen Tremayne	32	27.7	+16%
Sep 27	Garrett Wilson	107	54.3	+97%
Sep 27	Isaiah Williams	21	38.0	-45%
Sep 17	DJ Moore	0	59.3	-100%
Sep 17	Keon Coleman	63	51.3	+23%
Sep 13	Chris Olave	182	103.0	+77%
Sep 13	Devaughn Vele	69	52.3	+32%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.0 yds	2%15.2 yds	8%7.4 yds
Short	28%6.4 yds	20%5.0 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DET defense

DET defense: Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%7.4 yds#28	5%16.9 yds#10	8%19.9 yds#1
Short	26%4.9 yds#28	16%7.9 yds#10	38%5.3 yds#19

Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%11.0 yds	0%	4%0.0 yds
Short	43%7.4 yds	21%3.3 yds	18%8.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	4	11.5	46	32.5%
2	Michael Wilson WR	4	11.0	44	29.2%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	3	4.7	14	13.1%
4	Jeremiyah Love RB	4	3.2	13	8.8%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Tyler Allgeier RB	4	2.5	10	6.7%
7	Elijah Higgins TE	3	1.7	5	3.9%
8	Hunter Long TE	4	0.5	2	1.2%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	3	0.3	1	0.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 23.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	22	Under	23.5	48 (55%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	11	Under	24.5	30 (60%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	75	Over	18.5	50 (67%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	0	Under	2.5	24 (40%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	0	Under	0.5	22 (52%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	25	Over	25.5	19 (26%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	27	Over	27.5	46 (70%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	17	Under	—	33 (45%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	0	Under	—	23 (34%)
2025-11-09	10	vs LA	19	Under	20.5	43 (68%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NYG	34	Over	34.5	48 (73%)
2025-10-26	8	@ HOU	44	Over	35.5	38 (79%)
2025-10-19	7	vs ATL	14	Under	14.5	52 (78%)
2025-10-12	6	@ TB	142	Over	—	55 (80%)
2025-10-02	5	@ LA	142	Over	—	70 (81%)
2025-09-28	4	vs JAX	17	Under	—	44 (67%)
2025-09-21	3	vs ARI	38	Over	—	47 (72%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NO	32	Over	—	35 (49%)
2025-01-05	18	vs BUF	12	Under	—	24 (38%)
2024-12-28	17	vs LAC	22	Under	—	38 (72%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 23.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 12m ago.