NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

DeMario Douglas WR

NE vs LV · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

25.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 52%21/40 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 20.5
Graph avg: 30.9
Graph median: 31.0-2–100
Over the close: 44%10/23

2026 per game

Targets4.2▲+1.4

Rec2.2▲+0.3

Rec Yds20.5▼-6.1

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps35.5▲+17.6

Snap %53.5%▲+26.4

2024

12

Sep 08
69

Sep 19
13

Sep 29
59

Oct 06
92

Oct 13
14

Oct 20
12

Oct 27
35

Nov 03
50

Nov 10
59

Nov 17
62

Nov 24
20

Dec 01
11

Dec 15
33

Dec 22
46

Dec 28
34

Jan 05
2025

-2

Sep 07
8

Sep 14
7

Sep 21
17

Oct 05
71

Oct 12
17

Oct 19
44

Oct 26
100

Nov 02
34

Nov 09
36

Nov 13
37

Nov 23
33

Dec 01
0

Dec 14
6

Dec 21
10

Dec 28
29

Jan 04
3

Jan 11
36

Jan 18
0

Jan 25
45

Feb 08
2026

20

Sep 09
9

Sep 20
38

Sep 27
15

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 25.5

Home 63% 12/19 · avg 34.8
Away 43% 9/21 · avg 27.2
vs LV 0% 0/1 · avg -2.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 15.5 62% 25/40
O 20.5 52% 21/40
O 25.5 Today 52% 21/40
O 30.5 50% 20/40
O 35.5 38% 15/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LV

What LV allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds136.0#18
Receptions10.4#18
Targets17.0#19
Yds/Target8.0#14
Rec TD0.5#28

WRs vs LV · 2026

Each main WR who faced LV this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.3

Avg diff %+46%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tyquan Thornton	111	36.0	+208%
Oct 04	Xavier Worthy	70	21.0	+233%
Sep 27	Chris Olave	107	128.0	-16%
Sep 27	Devaughn Vele	39	62.3	-37%
Sep 20	Tre Harris	53	52.0	+2%
Sep 20	Ladd McConkey	35	49.3	-29%
Sep 13	Malik Washington	53	55.3	-4%
Sep 13	Chris Bell	25	22.3	+12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.4 yds	4%10.0 yds	11%11.9 yds
Short	30%6.1 yds	16%7.9 yds	28%6.1 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%15.4 yds#3	4%11.7 yds#27	6%5.0 yds#31
Short	34%5.7 yds#18	15%6.2 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#22

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	21%5.4 yds	6%0.0 yds	9%0.0 yds
Short	24%7.5 yds	21%9.3 yds	21%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Romeo Doubs WR	4	5.0	20	16.8%
2	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	4	4.2	17	14.3%
4	Hunter Henry TE	4	3.8	15	13.5%
5	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	4	4.0	16	13.2%
6	A.J. Brown WR	1	4.0	4	12.9%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	3	2.3	7	7.5%
9	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%
10	Kyle Williams WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 25.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	15	Under	29.5	35 (46%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	38	Over	28.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	9	Under	34.5	26 (47%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	20	Under	21.5	44 (62%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	45	Over	10.5	29 (41%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	0	Under	12.5	12 (19%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	36	Over	18.5	17 (26%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	3	Under	3.5	21 (33%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	29	Over	9.5	15 (25%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	10	Under	17.5	9 (14%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	6	Under	10.5	13 (18%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	0	Under	0.5	10 (19%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	33	Over	33.5	22 (34%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	37	Over	20.5	12 (17%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	36	Over	10.5	19 (28%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	34	Over	35.5	13 (21%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	100	Over	90.5	16 (24%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	44	Over	19.5	14 (21%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	17	Under	16.5	15 (23%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	71	Over	71.5	16 (25%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BUF	17	Under	10.5	17 (28%)
2025-09-21	3	vs PIT	7	Under	—	29 (39%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIA	8	Under	30.5	15 (25%)
2025-09-07	1	vs LV	-2	Under	10.5	45 (63%)
2025-01-05	18	vs BUF	34	Over	—	48 (75%)
2024-12-28	17	vs LAC	46	Over	—	49 (92%)
2024-12-22	16	@ BUF	33	Over	—	43 (59%)
2024-12-15	15	@ ARI	11	Under	—	31 (61%)
2024-12-01	13	vs IND	20	Under	—	45 (63%)
2024-11-24	12	@ MIA	62	Over	—	47 (68%)
2024-11-17	11	vs LA	59	Over	—	43 (57%)
2024-11-10	10	@ CHI	50	Over	—	27 (42%)
2024-11-03	9	@ TEN	35	Over	—	49 (71%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NYJ	12	Under	—	38 (57%)
2024-10-20	7	@ JAX	14	Under	—	20 (33%)
2024-10-13	6	vs HOU	92	Over	—	41 (62%)
2024-10-06	5	vs MIA	59	Over	—	40 (67%)
2024-09-29	4	@ SF	13	Under	—	38 (59%)
2024-09-19	3	@ NYJ	69	Over	—	43 (83%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CIN	12	Under	—	39 (60%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 25.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 11m ago.