NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Courtland Sutton WR

DEN vs LAC · Sun Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET

36.5 Rec Yds O -110U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 60%12/20 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 21.5
Graph avg: 49.4
Graph median: 49.54–113
Over the close: 37%7/19

2026 per game

Targets5.5▼-1.8

Rec2.2▼-2.0

Rec Yds21.5▼-35.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.4

Snaps47.5▼-9.9

Snap %77.2%▼-8.5

2025

81

Sep 29
99

Oct 05
17

Oct 12
87

Oct 19
67

Oct 26
30

Nov 02
24

Nov 06
59

Nov 16
62

Nov 30
62

Dec 07
113

Dec 14
86

Dec 21
40

Dec 25
5

Jan 04
53

Jan 17
17

Jan 25
2026

11

Sep 14
25

Sep 20
46

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 36.5

Home 67% 14/21 · avg 59.3
Away 74% 14/19 · avg 57.1
vs LAC 75% 3/4 · avg 56.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 26.5 65% 13/20
O 31.5 60% 12/20
O 36.5 Today 60% 12/20
O 41.5 55% 11/20
O 46.5 50% 10/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds147.7#13
Receptions10.9#15
Targets17.2#16
Yds/Target8.6#11
Rec TD0.8#17

WRs vs LAC · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-10.1

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average25% (2/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	76	135.0	-44%
Oct 04	Cooper Kupp	13	33.7	-61%
Sep 27	Keon Coleman	37	60.0	-38%
Sep 27	Khalil Shakir	6	56.7	-89%
Sep 20	Tre Tucker	119	38.0	+213%
Sep 20	Jalen Nailor	9	21.5	-58%
Sep 13	Michael Wilson	56	67.3	-17%
Sep 13	Marvin Harrison Jr.	33	17.3	+90%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	2%8.2 yds	6%9.9 yds
Short	34%5.7 yds	11%4.5 yds	38%4.8 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%13.3 yds#7	3%9.6 yds#30	5%12.7 yds#8
Short	33%6.0 yds#12	16%7.3 yds#13	32%6.4 yds#5

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%9.1 yds	4%0.0 yds	16%8.0 yds
Short	29%3.8 yds	3%6.0 yds	31%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	RJ Harvey RB	3	7.0	21	21.2%
2	Jaylen Waddle WR	4	6.5	26	21.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	4	5.5	22	17.7%
4	Evan Engram TE	4	3.2	13	10.4%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
7	Tyler Badie RB	3	2.0	6	6.3%
8	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%
9	Jonah Coleman RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
10	Troy Franklin WR	3	1.3	4	4.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 36.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	4	Under	39.5	48 (73%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	46	Over	36.5	58 (87%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	25	Under	39.5	45 (73%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	11	Under	42.5	39 (76%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	17	Under	48.5	54 (93%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	53	Over	55.5	61 (85%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	5	Under	5.5	46 (78%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	40	Over	61.5	59 (82%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	86	Over	58.5	62 (94%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	113	Over	—	60 (88%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	62	Over	62.5	48 (65%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	62	Over	52.5	57 (81%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	59	Over	34.5	57 (92%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	24	Under	24.5	53 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	30	Under	35.5	58 (92%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	67	Over	60.5	53 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	87	Over	79.5	76 (94%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	17	Under	17.5	48 (80%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	99	Over	57.5	70 (95%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	81	Over	85.5	69 (85%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 36.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 16m ago.