NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Rhamondre Stevenson RB

NE vs LV · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

37.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 65%24/37 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 40.8
Graph avg: 48.2
Graph median: 47.01–131
Over the close: 36%8/22

2026 per game

Carries11.0▲+0.6

Rush Yds40.8▼-4.8

Rush TD0.2▼-0.1

Targets4.0▲+1.1

Rec3.0▲+0.6

Rec Yds22.5▼-3.7

Snaps40.8▲+0.9

Snap %59.8%▼-2.0

2024

120

Sep 08
81

Sep 15
23

Sep 19
43

Sep 29
89

Oct 06
18

Oct 20
48

Oct 27
16

Nov 03
74

Nov 10
73

Nov 17
13

Nov 24
73

Dec 01
69

Dec 15
60

Dec 22
1

Dec 28
2025

15

Sep 07
54

Sep 14
18

Sep 21
38

Sep 28
14

Oct 05
18

Oct 12
88

Oct 19
34

Oct 26
5

Nov 23
40

Dec 01
50

Dec 14
51

Dec 21
47

Dec 28
131

Jan 04
53

Jan 11
70

Jan 18
71

Jan 25
23

Feb 08
2026

51

Sep 09
43

Sep 20
22

Sep 27
47

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 37.5

Home 71% 12/17 · avg 51.8
Away 60% 12/20 · avg 45.2
vs LV 0% 0/1 · avg 15.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 27.5 68% 25/37
O 32.5 68% 25/37
O 37.5 Today 65% 24/37
O 42.5 60% 22/37
O 47.5 49% 18/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LV

What LV allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds116.2#6
Yds/Carry4.5#11
Rush TD0.8#13
Targets5.2#19
Rec Yds24.7#27

RBs vs LV · 2026

Each main RB who faced LV this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+28.8

Avg diff %+46%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Kenneth Walker III	177	120.0	+48%
Sep 27	Travis Etienne	57	35.5	+61%
Sep 20	Omarion Hampton	94	48.0	+96%
Sep 13	De'Von Achane	36	45.5	-21%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.4 yds	4%10.0 yds	11%11.9 yds
Short	30%6.1 yds	16%7.9 yds	28%6.1 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%15.4 yds#3	4%11.7 yds#27	6%5.0 yds#31
Short	34%5.7 yds#18	15%6.2 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#22

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%11.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	47%6.7 yds	10%17.5 yds	37%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Romeo Doubs WR	4	5.0	20	16.8%
2	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	4	4.2	17	14.3%
4	Hunter Henry TE	4	3.8	15	13.5%
5	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	4	4.0	16	13.2%
6	A.J. Brown WR	1	4.0	4	12.9%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	3	2.3	7	7.5%
9	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%
10	Kyle Williams WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 37.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	47	Over	32.5	50 (66%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	22	Under	34.5	33 (52%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	43	Over	48.5	20 (36%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	51	Over	57.5	60 (85%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	23	Under	48.5	45 (63%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	71	Over	49.5	60 (94%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	70	Over	39.5	40 (62%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	53	Over	54.5	40 (62%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	131	Over	32.5	28 (47%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	47	Over	70.5	32 (48%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	51	Over	30.5	62 (84%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	50	Over	38.5	35 (67%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	40	Over	42.5	38 (58%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	5	Under	10.5	22 (31%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	34	Under	40.5	50 (74%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	88	Over	44.5	49 (75%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	18	Under	45.5	46 (72%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BUF	14	Under	10.5	31 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CAR	38	Over	50.5	28 (57%)
2025-09-21	3	vs PIT	18	Under	40.5	27 (36%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIA	54	Over	55.5	39 (65%)
2025-09-07	1	vs LV	15	Under	15.5	46 (65%)
2024-12-28	17	vs LAC	1	Under	—	24 (45%)
2024-12-22	16	@ BUF	60	Over	—	32 (44%)
2024-12-15	15	@ ARI	69	Over	—	33 (65%)
2024-12-01	13	vs IND	73	Over	—	56 (78%)
2024-11-24	12	@ MIA	13	Under	—	29 (42%)
2024-11-17	11	vs LA	73	Over	—	58 (76%)
2024-11-10	10	@ CHI	74	Over	—	45 (70%)
2024-11-03	9	@ TEN	16	Under	—	51 (74%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NYJ	48	Over	—	54 (81%)
2024-10-20	7	@ JAX	18	Under	—	30 (50%)
2024-10-06	5	vs MIA	89	Over	—	28 (47%)
2024-09-29	4	@ SF	43	Over	—	35 (55%)
2024-09-19	3	@ NYJ	23	Under	—	24 (46%)
2024-09-15	2	vs SEA	81	Over	—	49 (72%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CIN	120	Over	—	51 (78%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 37.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 11m ago.