NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jaylen Warren RB

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

60.5 Rush Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · All 34%13/38 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 82.0
Graph avg: 50.7
Graph median: 46.05–143
Over the close: 48%10/21

2026 per game

Carries14.0▲+0.9

Rush Yds82.0▲+23.1

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets5.2▲+2.5

Rec3.8▲+1.4

Rec Yds46.0▲+26.2

Snaps50.6▲+20.3

Snap %76.4%▲+25.9

60.5

2024

7

Sep 08
42

Sep 15
5

Sep 22
7

Oct 13
44

Oct 20
46

Oct 28
66

Nov 10
41

Nov 17
45

Nov 21
9

Dec 01
47

Dec 08
12

Dec 15
48

Dec 21
71

Dec 25
21

Jan 04
6

Jan 11
2025

37

Sep 07
48

Sep 14
47

Sep 21
52

Oct 12
127

Oct 16
62

Oct 26
31

Nov 02
70

Nov 09
62

Nov 16
68

Nov 23
35

Nov 30
13

Dec 07
33

Dec 15
143

Dec 21
64

Dec 28
66

Jan 04
43

Jan 12
2026

46

Sep 13
43

Sep 20
127

Sep 27
93

Oct 01
101

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 60.5

Home 32% 6/19 · avg 51.6
Away 37% 7/19 · avg 49.8
vs TB No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 40.5 68% 26/38
O 50.5 37% 14/38
O 60.5 Today 34% 13/38
O 70.5 16% 6/38
O 80.5 13% 5/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs TB

What TB allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds71.1#28
Yds/Carry3.9#22
Rush TD0.4#29
Targets5.8#11
Rec Yds35.7#9

RBs vs TB · 2026

Each main RB who faced TB this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-15.0

Avg diff %-29%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Javonte Williams	45	57.8	-22%
Oct 04	MarShawn Lloyd	13	24.8	-47%
Sep 27	Aaron Jones	58	88.0	-34%
Sep 20	Quinshon Judkins	21	50.0	-58%
Sep 13	Chase Brown	56	47.5	+18%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	28%3.8 yds	12%14.2 yds	60%9.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 60.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	101	Over	73.5	52 (87%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	93	Over	75.5	70 (97%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	127	Over	57.5	56 (90%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	43	Under	42.5	50 (71%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	46	Under	42.5	25 (37%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	43	Under	30.5	26 (46%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	66	Over	66.5	28 (37%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	64	Over	65.5	21 (32%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	143	Over	40.5	36 (49%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	33	Under	40.5	30 (45%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	13	Under	50.5	26 (50%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	35	Under	35.5	24 (56%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	68	Over	70.5	36 (50%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	62	Over	90.5	18 (28%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	70	Over	59.5	24 (46%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	31	Under	35.5	35 (56%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	62	Over	—	39 (62%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	127	Over	125.5	37 (65%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	52	Under	44.5	31 (53%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	47	Under	54.5	43 (80%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	48	Under	48.5	36 (58%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NYJ	37	Under	52.5	25 (45%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ BAL	6	Under	—	25 (54%)
2025-01-04	18	vs CIN	21	Under	—	23 (38%)
2024-12-25	17	vs KC	71	Over	—	40 (53%)
2024-12-21	16	@ BAL	48	Under	—	40 (67%)
2024-12-15	15	@ PHI	12	Under	—	23 (53%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CLE	47	Under	—	34 (52%)
2024-12-01	13	@ CIN	9	Under	—	25 (36%)
2024-11-21	12	@ CLE	45	Under	—	39 (57%)
2024-11-17	11	vs BAL	41	Under	—	26 (33%)
2024-11-10	10	@ WAS	66	Over	—	35 (45%)
2024-10-28	8	vs NYG	46	Under	—	26 (39%)
2024-10-20	7	vs NYJ	44	Under	—	35 (51%)
2024-10-13	6	@ LV	7	Under	—	25 (37%)
2024-09-22	3	vs LAC	5	Under	—	23 (34%)
2024-09-15	2	@ DEN	42	Under	—	32 (48%)
2024-09-08	1	@ ATL	7	Under	—	21 (31%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 59.5PrizePicks 60.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.