NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

RJ Harvey RB

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

18.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 70%7/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 16.2
Graph avg: 25.9
Graph median: 25.06–50
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Carries4.2▼-4.5

Rush Yds16.2▼-15.2

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets5.2▲+1.5

Rec4.6▲+1.7

Rec Yds32.6▲+10.3

Snaps25.2▼-4.1

Snap %41.6%▼-2.1

18.5

2025

50

Dec 21
43

Dec 25
28

Jan 04
20

Jan 17
37

Jan 25
2026

18

Sep 14
6

Sep 27
25

Oct 04
7

Oct 11
25

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 18.5

Home 77% 10/13 · avg 34.2
Away 36% 4/11 · avg 21.3
vs ARI No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 8.5 80% 8/10
O 13.5 80% 8/10
O 18.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 23.5 60% 6/10
O 28.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds116.5#1
Yds/Carry4.4#9
Rush TD0.7#10
Targets5.9#11
Rec Yds38.2#6

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+18.2

Avg diff %+32%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Kyren Williams	50	68.6	-27%
Oct 11	Jahmyr Gibbs	151	88.2	+71%
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	58	59.0	-2%
Sep 27	Christian McCaffrey	75	52.8	+42%
Sep 20	Emanuel Wilson	92	42.2	+118%
Sep 13	Omarion Hampton	43	49.2	-13%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	2%0.0 yds
Short	38%6.8 yds	11%4.0 yds	49%6.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 18.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	25	Over	14.5	24 (40%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	7	Under	25.5	23 (37%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	25	Over	15.5	29 (44%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	6	Under	20.5	24 (36%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	18	Under	17.5	26 (51%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	37	Over	39.5	31 (53%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	20	Over	55.5	45 (62%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	28	Over	56.5	33 (56%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	43	Over	22.5	47 (65%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	50	Over	50.5	39 (59%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 18.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 13m ago.