NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Allen QB

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

33.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 47.8
Graph avg: 40.1
Graph median: 35.54–121
Over the close: 50%10/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds249.8▲+15.1

Att27.6▼-2.1

Cmp%65.9%▼-3.7

Pass TD1.4▼-0.2

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds47.8▲+10.1

Snaps64.2▼-1.0

Snap %100.0%▲+1.9

33.5

2025

45

Sep 28
53

Oct 05
42

Oct 13
7

Oct 26
19

Nov 02
31

Nov 09
40

Nov 16
20

Nov 20
38

Nov 30
78

Dec 07
48

Dec 14
17

Dec 21
27

Dec 28
33

Jan 11
66

Jan 17
2026

23

Sep 13
69

Sep 17
22

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
121

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 33.5

Home 43% 9/21 · avg 32.8
Away 52% 11/21 · avg 41.1
vs LV No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 23.5 65% 13/20
O 28.5 60% 12/20
O 33.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 38.5 45% 9/20
O 43.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LV

What LV allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds222.6#19
Yds/Att7.1#14
Cmp%67.0%#4
Pass TD1.5#17
Pass Att31.2#24

QBs vs LV · 2026

Each main QB who faced LV this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.3

Avg diff %+17%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Drake Maye	25	34.0	-26%
Oct 04	Patrick Mahomes	0	13.7	-100%
Sep 27	Tyler Shough	36	9.0	+300%
Sep 20	Justin Herbert	2	35.0	-94%
Sep 13	Malik Willis	39	36.8	+6%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.5 yds	8%17.8 yds	7%14.8 yds
Short	28%7.7 yds	13%8.9 yds	38%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 33.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	121	Over	36.5	64 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	4	Under	31.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	22	Under	33.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	69	Over	31.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	23	Under	30.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	66	Over	36.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	33	Under	26.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	27	Under	33.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	17	Under	16.5	50 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	48	Over	38.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	78	Over	25.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	38	Over	37.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	20	Under	20.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	40	Over	35.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	31	Under	31.5	65 (96%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	19	Under	19.5	66 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	7	Under	31.5	52 (83%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	42	Over	20.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	53	Over	53.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	45	Over	48.5	59 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 33.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 9m ago.