NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Allen QB

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

33.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 48%20/42 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 47.8
Graph avg: 37.0
Graph median: 32.01–121
Over the close: 56%13/23

2026 per game

Pass Yds249.8▲+15.1

Att27.6▼-2.1

Cmp%65.9%▼-3.7

Pass TD1.4▼-0.2

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds47.8▲+10.1

Snaps64.2▼-1.0

Snap %100.0%▲+1.9

33.5

2024

44

Sep 23
21

Sep 29
54

Oct 06
18

Oct 14
1

Oct 20
25

Oct 27
7

Nov 03
50

Nov 10
55

Nov 17
18

Dec 01
82

Dec 08
68

Dec 15
30

Dec 22
17

Dec 29
46

Jan 12
20

Jan 19
39

Jan 26
2025

30

Sep 07
59

Sep 14
25

Sep 18
45

Sep 28
53

Oct 05
42

Oct 13
7

Oct 26
19

Nov 02
31

Nov 09
40

Nov 16
20

Nov 20
38

Nov 30
78

Dec 07
48

Dec 14
17

Dec 21
27

Dec 28
33

Jan 11
66

Jan 17
2026

23

Sep 13
69

Sep 17
22

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
121

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Showing the latest 40 of 42 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 33.5

Home 43% 9/21 · avg 32.8
Away 52% 11/21 · avg 41.1
vs LV No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 23.5 64% 27/42
O 28.5 57% 24/42
O 33.5 Today 48% 20/42
O 38.5 45% 19/42
O 43.5 36% 15/42

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LV

What LV allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds222.6#19
Yds/Att7.1#14
Cmp%67.0%#4
Pass TD1.5#17
Pass Att31.2#24

QBs vs LV · 2026

Each main QB who faced LV this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.3

Avg diff %+17%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Drake Maye	25	34.0	-26%
Oct 04	Patrick Mahomes	0	13.7	-100%
Sep 27	Tyler Shough	36	9.0	+300%
Sep 20	Justin Herbert	2	35.0	-94%
Sep 13	Malik Willis	39	36.8	+6%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.5 yds	8%17.8 yds	7%14.8 yds
Short	28%7.7 yds	13%8.9 yds	38%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 42 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 33.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	121	Over	36.5	64 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	4	Under	31.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	22	Under	33.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	69	Over	31.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	23	Under	30.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	66	Over	36.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	33	Under	26.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	27	Under	33.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	17	Under	16.5	50 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	48	Over	38.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	78	Over	25.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	38	Over	37.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	20	Under	20.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	40	Over	35.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	31	Under	31.5	65 (96%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	19	Under	19.5	66 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	7	Under	31.5	52 (83%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	42	Over	20.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	53	Over	53.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	45	Over	48.5	59 (100%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	25	Under	23.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	59	Over	56.5	65 (87%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	30	Under	25.5	85 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	39	Over	—	73 (100%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	20	Under	—	61 (100%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs DEN	46	Over	—	71 (93%)
2024-12-29	17	vs NYJ	17	Under	—	60 (86%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NE	30	Under	—	59 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DET	68	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ LA	82	Over	—	60 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SF	18	Under	—	43 (74%)
2024-11-17	11	vs KC	55	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ IND	50	Over	—	73 (99%)
2024-11-03	9	vs MIA	7	Under	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SEA	25	Under	—	69 (91%)
2024-10-20	7	vs TEN	1	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-10-14	6	@ NYJ	18	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	@ HOU	54	Over	—	60 (98%)
2024-09-29	4	@ BAL	21	Under	—	51 (86%)
2024-09-23	3	vs JAX	44	Over	—	56 (88%)
2024-09-12	2	@ MIA	2	Under	—	41 (91%)
2024-09-08	1	vs ARI	39	Over	—	62 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 33.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 8m ago.