NFL Prop Research

RD

Ray Davis RB

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

6.5 Rush Yds O -111U -113

BookCaesars · 6.5ESPN BET · 6.5FanDuel · 6.5DraftKings · 6.5Fanatics · 5.5BetMGM · 7.5

Hit rate · Last 20 20%4/20 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg

2.0

Graph avg

12.8

Graph median

0.5-2–151

Over the close

0%0/8

2026 per game

Carries1.0▼-2.1

Rush Yds2.0▼-12.5

Rush TD0.0+0.0

Targets0.5▼-0.3

Rec0.5▼-0.1

Rec Yds8.8▲+2.5

Snaps7.2▼-4.1

Snap %11.5%▼-4.8

Splits all logged games · over 6.5

• Home 48% 10/21 · avg 18.4
• Away 46% 10/22 · avg 17.0
• vs LV No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

• O 1.5 45% 9/20
• O 6.5 Today 20% 4/20
• O 11.5 20% 4/20
• O 16.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LV

What LV allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rush Yds112.0#6
• Yds/Carry4.6#7
• Rush TD0.7#14
• Targets5.6#14
• Rec Yds28.0#23

RBs vs LV · 2026

Each main RB who faced LV this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+18.8

Avg diff %+29%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	NE TreVeyon Henderson	22	47.0	-53%
Oct 04	KC Kenneth Walker III	177	120.0	+48%
Sep 27	NO Travis Etienne	57	35.5	+61%
Sep 20	LAC Omarion Hampton	94	44.2	+112%
Sep 13	MIA De'Von Achane	36	45.5	-21%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	20%11.7 yds	7%0.0 yds	73%8.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · BUF 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 6.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	2	Under	2.5	10 (16%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	3	Under	—	4 (7%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	0	Under	7.5	10 (14%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	3	Under	—	5 (9%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	0	Under	4.5	27 (35%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	0	Under	10.5	20 (32%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	151	Over	—	48 (64%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	4	Under	—	10 (13%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	14	Over	—	8 (16%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	0	Under	—	6 (9%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	0	Under	8.5	4 (6%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	62	Over	—	13 (18%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	0	Under	—	6 (9%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	0	Under	—	1 (2%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	-2	Under	24.5	7 (10%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	0	Under	—	3 (5%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	16	Over	—	15 (24%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	0	Under	—	2 (4%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	1	Under	2.5	6 (9%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	3	Under	18.5	5 (8%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 6.5Underdog 9.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.