NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dak Prescott QB

DAL vs GB · Sun Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET

10.5 Rush Yds O -110U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 13.2
Graph avg: 11.2
Graph median: 8.0-4–34
Over the close: 35%6/17

2026 per game

Pass Yds276.2▲+8.4

Att38.4▲+3.1

Cmp%67.2%▼-0.1

Pass TD1.8+0.0

INT0.6+0.0

Rush Yds13.2▲+2.8

Snaps65.0▼-1.8

Snap %100.0%▲+4.9

10.5

2025

0

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
28

Oct 05
-1

Oct 12
7

Oct 19
31

Oct 26
34

Nov 03
-4

Nov 17
9

Nov 23
-2

Nov 27
14

Dec 04
2

Dec 14
14

Dec 21
24

Dec 25
-1

Jan 04
2026

14

Sep 13
26

Sep 20
19

Sep 27
7

Oct 04
0

Oct 08
?

Oct 19

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 10.5

Home 43% 6/14 · avg 10.6
Away 38% 6/16 · avg 9.3
vs GB 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 70% 14/20
O 5.5 60% 12/20
O 10.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 15.5 30% 6/20
O 20.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs GB

What GB allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds225.6#18
Yds/Att7.0#18
Cmp%63.3%#16
Pass TD1.5#15
Pass Att32.4#14

QBs vs GB · 2026

Each main QB who faced GB this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.4

Avg diff %+694%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Tyson Bagent	17	0.5	+3300%
Oct 04	Jalon Daniels	55	16.0	+244%
Sep 24	Michael Penix Jr.	-2	3.0	-167%
Sep 20	Geno Smith	17	6.5	+162%
Sep 13	Kyler Murray	9	28.0	-68%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.5 yds	5%21.2 yds	5%14.8 yds
Short	34%6.3 yds	16%5.7 yds	33%5.8 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

GB defense

GB defense: Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.1 yds#7	3%11.0 yds#30	7%7.5 yds#28
Short	26%5.3 yds#23	20%6.3 yds#23	34%6.1 yds#7

Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	5%21.2 yds	5%15.6 yds
Short	34%6.3 yds	16%5.8 yds	32%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	5	10.2	51	27.3%
2	George Pickens WR	5	8.2	41	22.2%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	5	5.4	27	14.8%
4	Javonte Williams RB	5	4.0	20	11.2%
5	Jake Ferguson TE	5	4.2	21	11.1%
6	Jonathan Mingo WR	3	2.3	7	5.8%
7	KaVontae Turpin WR	5	1.4	7	3.6%
8	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	5	1.2	6	3.3%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	2	1.0	2	2.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 10.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	0	Under	9.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	7	Under	10.5	78 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	19	Over	12.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	26	Over	8.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	14	Over	7.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	-1	Under	—	28 (51%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	24	Over	7.5	92 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	14	Over	15.5	53 (91%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	2	Under	2.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	14	Over	13.5	82 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	-2	Under	5.5	72 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	9	Under	10.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	-4	Under	5.5	67 (100%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	34	Over	—	67 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	31	Over	31.5	65 (88%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	7	Under	10.5	67 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	-1	Under	5.5	55 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	28	Over	4.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs GB	2	Under	—	69 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CHI	0	Under	5.5	64 (86%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 9.5PrizePicks 10.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 2m ago.