NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jacoby Brissett QB

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

7.5 Rush Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 12.4
Graph avg: 11.5
Graph median: 10.5-2–31
Over the close: 53%8/15

2026 per game

Pass Yds222.0▼-18.4

Att39.8▲+5.2

Cmp%66.3%▲+1.4

Pass TD1.8▲+0.2

INT1.0▲+0.4

Rush Yds12.4▲+0.4

Snaps70.2▲+12.2

Snap %100.0%▲+14.3

7.5

2024

0

Dec 28
2025

2

Sep 14
0

Oct 05
19

Oct 12
26

Oct 19
4

Nov 03
31

Nov 09
-2

Nov 16
20

Nov 23
16

Nov 30
22

Dec 07
6

Dec 14
5

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
19

Jan 04
2026

14

Sep 13
7

Sep 20
4

Sep 27
18

Oct 04
19

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 7.5

Home 46% 6/13 · avg 9.7
Away 54% 7/13 · avg 12.8
vs LAR 100% 2/2 · avg 20.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 75% 15/20
O 7.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 12.5 50% 10/20
O 17.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds206.1#26
Yds/Att6.5#23
Cmp%58.4%#30
Pass TD1.7#9
Pass Att31.5#20

QBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAR this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+16.0

Avg diff %+46%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Josh Allen	121	29.5	+310%
Oct 04	Jalen Hurts	18	22.2	-19%
Sep 27	Bo Nix	7	6.0	+17%
Sep 21	Jameis Winston	1	13.7	-93%
Sep 10	Brock Purdy	29	24.8	+17%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	1%11.0 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	34%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 7.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	19	Over	8.5	73 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	18	Over	7.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	4	Under	7.5	87 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	7	Under	9.5	50 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	14	Over	10.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	19	Over	10.5	55 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	0	Under	11.5	57 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	5	Under	5.5	57 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	6	Under	12.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	22	Over	20.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TB	16	Over	12.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs JAX	20	Over	10.5	82 (98%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SF	-2	Under	5.5	79 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SEA	31	Over	13.5	73 (96%)
2025-11-03	9	@ DAL	4	Under	—	67 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs GB	26	Over	—	76 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ IND	19	Over	19.5	73 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	0	Under	—	3 (4%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	2	Under	—	1 (2%)
2024-12-28	17	vs LAC	0	Under	—	10 (19%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 7.5Underdog 9.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.