NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

14.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 70%14/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 10.2
Graph avg: 26.6
Graph median: 26.50–66
Over the close: 33%6/18

2026 per game

Pass Yds259.2▲+3.0

Att32.0▼-3.9

Cmp%64.1%▲+1.3

Pass TD2.2▲+0.7

INT0.5▼-0.3

Rush Yds10.2▼-19.9

Snaps65.2▼-1.5

Snap %100.0%▲+2.6

14.5

2024

43

Jan 26
25

Feb 09
2025

57

Sep 05
66

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
5

Sep 28
60

Oct 06
32

Oct 12
28

Oct 19
30

Oct 27
5

Nov 02
3

Nov 16
30

Nov 23
30

Nov 27
59

Dec 07
15

Dec 14
2026

23

Sep 14
17

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 75% 15/20 · avg 24.9
Away 47% 8/17 · avg 20.8
vs LAC 75% 3/4 · avg 25.2

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 80% 16/20
O 9.5 70% 14/20
O 14.5 Today 70% 14/20
O 19.5 60% 12/20
O 24.5 55% 11/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds214.4#23
Yds/Att7.5#8
Cmp%62.9%#20
Pass TD1.2#24
Pass Att28.6#30

QBs vs LAC · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAC this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.7

Avg diff %+6%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Bo Nix	10	5.4	+85%
Oct 04	Sam Darnold	6	7.2	-17%
Sep 27	Josh Allen	22	54.2	-59%
Sep 13	Jacoby Brissett	14	12.0	+17%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.2 yds	6%13.7 yds	10%10.1 yds
Short	26%6.1 yds	17%5.5 yds	36%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 14.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	0	Under	15.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	1	Under	15.5	52 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	17	Over	18.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	23	Over	14.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	15	Over	16.5	56 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	59	Over	60.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	30	Over	25.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	30	Over	10.5	96 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	3	Under	10.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	5	Under	5.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	30	Over	30.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	28	Over	22.5	65 (80%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	32	Over	40.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	60	Over	55.5	64 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	5	Under	6.5	67 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	2	Under	10.5	72 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	66	Over	70.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	57	Over	17.5	61 (100%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	25	Over	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	43	Over	—	66 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5PrizePicks 15.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 9m ago.