NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Geno Smith QB

NYJ vs NE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

8.5 Rush Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · All 43%16/37 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 8.6
Graph avg: 11.5
Graph median: 8.0-6–72
Over the close: 30%6/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds216.8▲+15.1

Att29.4▼-0.5

Cmp%69.4%▲+2.0

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-1.1

Rush Yds8.6▲+1.3

Snaps61.8▲+4.3

Snap %100.0%▲+3.5

8.5

2024

30

Sep 08
8

Sep 15
-2

Sep 22
38

Sep 30
72

Oct 06
0

Oct 10
15

Oct 20
16

Oct 27
16

Nov 03
29

Nov 17
2

Nov 24
2

Dec 01
0

Dec 08
5

Dec 15
8

Dec 22
19

Dec 26
14

Jan 05
2025

10

Sep 07
20

Sep 15
5

Sep 21
31

Sep 28
8

Oct 05
-3

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
9

Nov 02
7

Nov 06
14

Nov 17
8

Nov 23
-6

Nov 30
4

Dec 07
0

Dec 21
1

Dec 28
2026

7

Sep 13
17

Sep 20
12

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
7

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 8.5

Home 47% 9/19 · avg 13.4
Away 39% 7/18 · avg 9.4
vs NE 50% 1/2 · avg 9.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 70% 26/37
O 8.5 Today 43% 16/37
O 13.5 35% 13/37
O 18.5 19% 7/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NE

What NE allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds195.6#29
Yds/Att5.9#31
Cmp%59.3%#29
Pass TD1.0#28
Pass Att33.4#10

QBs vs NE · 2026

Each main QB who faced NE this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-11.3

Avg diff %+14%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Josh Allen	4	58.8	-93%
Sep 27	Trevor Lawrence	25	8.5	+194%
Sep 20	Aaron Rodgers	5	3.2	+54%
Sep 09	Sam Darnold	0	8.8	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYJ offense

NYJ offense: Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.0 yds	2%21.2 yds	6%12.7 yds
Short	37%5.3 yds	10%4.5 yds	40%5.0 yds

Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds#29	4%10.5 yds#31	4%10.0 yds#22
Short	32%5.2 yds#27	17%7.7 yds#12	36%4.4 yds#31

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.8 yds	3%15.4 yds	6%12.2 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	16%7.4 yds	37%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYJ targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Garrett Wilson WR	5	8.4	42	30.1%
2	Adonai Mitchell WR	2	7.5	15	23.2%
3	Kenyon Sadiq TE	5	4.2	21	16.1%
4	Mason Taylor TE	2	3.0	6	11.7%
5	Isaiah Williams WR	5	2.8	14	10.7%
6	Breece Hall RB	3	3.3	10	10.3%
7	Tim Patrick WR	1	3.0	3	10.3%
8	Braelon Allen RB	5	2.2	11	8.5%
9	Jeremy Ruckert TE	3	2.7	8	7.9%
10	Sterling Shepard WR	2	1.0	2	4.7%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 8.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CLE	7	Under	10.5	70 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CHI	0	Under	10.5	32 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DET	12	Over	11.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs GB	17	Over	7.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ TEN	7	Under	6.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	1	Under	5.5	53 (90%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	0	Under	8.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	4	Under	5.5	37 (74%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	-6	Under	8.5	48 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	8	Under	8.5	79 (100%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	14	Over	10.5	60 (100%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	7	Under	10.5	58 (97%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	9	Over	5.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ KC	1	Under	5.5	30 (86%)
2025-10-12	6	vs TEN	-3	Under	5.5	61 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ IND	8	Under	10.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CHI	31	Over	32.5	52 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	5	Under	5.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	vs LAC	20	Over	9.5	70 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NE	10	Over	10.5	63 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LA	14	Over	—	55 (100%)
2024-12-26	17	@ CHI	19	Over	—	52 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs MIN	8	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs GB	5	Under	—	35 (59%)
2024-12-08	14	@ ARI	0	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NYJ	2	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs ARI	2	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ SF	29	Over	—	60 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs LA	16	Over	—	80 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs BUF	16	Over	—	51 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ ATL	15	Over	—	59 (98%)
2024-10-10	6	vs SF	0	Under	—	78 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs NYG	72	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-30	4	@ DET	38	Over	—	90 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs MIA	-2	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ NE	8	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs DEN	30	Over	—	67 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 4.5PrizePicks 8.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.