NFL Prop Research

ID

Isaiah Davis RB

NYJ vs NE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

7.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply —

Season avg

2.0

Graph avg

12.2

Graph median

8.00–65

Over the close

43%6/14

2026 per game

Carries0.5▼-2.2

Rush Yds2.0▼-12.8

Rush TD0.0▼-0.1

Targets0.5▼-1.2

Rec0.2▼-1.1

Rec Yds2.2▼-9.4

Snaps6.0▼-11.8

Snap %10.0%▼-18.0

Splits all logged games · over 7.5

• Home 47% 8/17 · avg 8.8
• Away 56% 9/16 · avg 16.8
• vs NE 50% 2/4 · avg 7.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

• O 2.5 65% 13/20
• O 7.5 Today 55% 11/20
• O 12.5 20% 4/20
• O 17.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs NE

What NE allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rush Yds68.8#31
• Yds/Carry3.5#29
• Rush TD0.4#27
• Targets5.6#13
• Rec Yds31.8#17

RBs vs NE · 2026

Each main RB who faced NE this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-36.0

Avg diff %-47%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	LV Ashton Jeanty	27	66.0	-59%
Oct 04	BUF James Cook	75	114.2	-34%
Sep 27	JAX Bhayshul Tuten	73	69.0	+6%
Sep 20	PIT Jaylen Warren	43	91.8	-53%
Sep 09	SEA Emanuel Wilson	3	60.0	-95%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYJ offense

NYJ offense: Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.0 yds	2%21.2 yds	6%12.7 yds
Short	37%5.3 yds	10%4.5 yds	40%5.0 yds

Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds#29	4%10.5 yds#31	4%10.0 yds#22
Short	32%5.2 yds#27	17%7.7 yds#12	36%4.4 yds#31

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	52%5.2 yds	19%3.5 yds	29%12.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · NYJ 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYJ targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Garrett Wilson WR	5	8.4	42	30.1%
2	Adonai Mitchell WR	2	7.5	15	23.2%
3	Kenyon Sadiq TE	5	4.2	21	16.1%
4	Mason Taylor TE	2	3.0	6	11.7%
5	Isaiah Williams WR	5	2.8	14	10.7%
6	Breece Hall RB	3	3.3	10	10.3%
7	Tim Patrick WR	1	3.0	3	10.3%
8	Braelon Allen RB	5	2.2	11	8.5%
9	Jeremy Ruckert TE	3	2.7	8	7.9%
10	Sterling Shepard WR	2	1.0	2	4.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 7.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CLE	8	Over	14.5	10 (14%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CHI	0	Under	19.5	2 (6%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DET	0	Under	—	—
2026-09-20	2	vs GB	0	Under	—	—
2025-12-28	17	vs NE	11	Over	8.5	8 (13%)
2025-12-21	16	@ NO	8	Over	8.5	24 (36%)
2025-12-14	15	@ JAX	58	Over	20.5	26 (38%)
2025-12-07	14	vs MIA	22	Over	7.5	14 (24%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ATL	0	Under	5.5	8 (12%)
2025-11-23	12	@ BAL	7	Under	7.5	17 (29%)
2025-11-13	11	@ NE	11	Over	15.5	16 (28%)
2025-11-09	10	vs CLE	10	Over	2.5	14 (29%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CIN	65	Over	12.5	33 (46%)
2025-10-19	7	vs CAR	10	Over	7.5	29 (48%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DEN	2	Under	13.5	15 (26%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DAL	5	Under	19.5	33 (40%)
2025-09-29	4	@ MIA	9	Over	—	21 (33%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TB	0	Under	—	9 (13%)
2025-09-14	2	vs BUF	0	Under	—	10 (21%)
2025-09-07	1	vs PIT	18	Over	—	8 (12%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 7.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 13m ago.