NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Trevor Lawrence QB

JAX vs HOU · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

12.5 Rush Yds O -120U -111

Hit rate · All 48%16/33 Odds imply 50.9% Over

Season avg: 11.8
Graph avg: 17.2
Graph median: 12.00–54
Over the close: 48%11/23

2026 per game

Pass Yds234.8▲+0.7

Att28.6▼-4.2

Cmp%67.1%▲+6.3

Pass TD2.0▲+0.2

INT0.6▼-0.2

Rush Yds11.8▼-9.9

Snaps60.2▼-4.8

Snap %96.6%▼-0.3

12.5

2024

8

Sep 08
45

Sep 15
3

Sep 23
5

Sep 29
4

Oct 06
17

Oct 13
13

Oct 20
10

Oct 27
8

Nov 03
6

Dec 01
2025

12

Sep 07
4

Sep 14
9

Sep 21
7

Sep 28
54

Oct 06
9

Oct 12
18

Oct 19
24

Nov 02
35

Nov 09
9

Nov 16
29

Nov 23
25

Nov 30
16

Dec 07
51

Dec 14
20

Dec 21
26

Dec 28
11

Jan 04
31

Jan 11
2026

3

Sep 13
6

Sep 20
25

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
25

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 12.5

Home 50% 9/18 · avg 19.5
Away 47% 7/15 · avg 14.5
vs HOU 25% 1/4 · avg 13.8

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 97% 32/33
O 7.5 73% 24/33
O 12.5 Today 48% 16/33
O 17.5 39% 13/33
O 22.5 33% 11/33

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds231.5#14
Yds/Att7.1#16
Cmp%64.5%#13
Pass TD1.4#18
Pass Att32.7#13

QBs vs HOU · 2026

Each main QB who faced HOU this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-12.8

Avg diff %-61%

Beat their average0% (0/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Cam Ward	2	14.2	-86%
Oct 04	Dak Prescott	7	14.8	-53%
Sep 27	Daniel Jones	5	5.0	+0%
Sep 20	Joe Burrow	-1	12.2	-108%
Sep 13	Josh Allen	23	54.0	-57%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	4%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	16%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.6 yds#11	3%22.5 yds#2	7%13.0 yds#7
Short	28%5.1 yds#28	19%6.9 yds#17	33%4.5 yds#29

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	5%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	17%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	5	7.0	35	25.3%
2	Brenton Strange TE	5	5.2	26	19.2%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	13.6%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	5	3.4	17	12.6%
5	Josh Cameron WR	5	2.4	12	8.3%
6	Bhayshul Tuten RB	5	2.0	10	7.2%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	4	1.5	6	5.6%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%
10	Quintin Morris TE	4	0.5	2	2.1%

Game log · 33 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 12.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs PHI	25	Over	13.5	72 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	0	Under	14.5	61 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	25	Over	16.5	59 (95%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	6	Under	16.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	3	Under	17.5	50 (88%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	31	Over	31.5	56 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	11	Under	17.5	50 (82%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	26	Over	23.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	20	Over	19.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	51	Over	51.5	54 (87%)
2025-12-07	14	vs IND	16	Over	13.5	58 (91%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TEN	25	Over	24.5	60 (95%)
2025-11-23	12	@ ARI	29	Over	30.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs LAC	9	Under	10.5	63 (89%)
2025-11-09	10	@ HOU	35	Over	15.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LV	24	Over	10.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LA	18	Over	5.5	77 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SEA	9	Under	10.5	76 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	vs KC	54	Over	47.5	58 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ SF	7	Under	10.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs HOU	9	Under	0.5	70 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ CIN	4	Under	4.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs CAR	12	Under	14.5	66 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs HOU	6	Under	—	19 (27%)
2024-11-03	9	@ PHI	8	Under	—	54 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs GB	10	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs NE	13	Over	—	61 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CHI	17	Over	—	59 (95%)
2024-10-06	5	vs IND	4	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ HOU	5	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-23	3	@ BUF	3	Under	—	57 (80%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CLE	45	Over	—	60 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ MIA	8	Under	—	53 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 7m ago.