NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Justin Herbert QB

LAC vs KC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

24.5 Rush Yds O -109U -115

Hit rate · All 48%19/40 Odds imply 49.4% Over

Season avg: 28.4
Graph avg: 25.1
Graph median: 22.50–66
Over the close: 54%12/22

2026 per game

Pass Yds187.4▼-41.2

Att28.6▼-3.3

Cmp%59.4%▼-6.7

Pass TD1.0▼-0.5

INT1.4▲+0.6

Rush Yds28.4▼-4.2

Snaps66.0▲+1.1

Snap %100.0%▲+3.0

24.5

2024

6

Sep 08
18

Sep 15
0

Sep 22
0

Sep 29
2

Oct 13
8

Oct 21
49

Oct 27
2

Nov 03
32

Nov 10
65

Nov 17
29

Nov 25
1

Dec 01
12

Dec 08
0

Dec 15
28

Dec 19
12

Dec 28
42

Jan 05
0

Jan 11
2025

32

Sep 05
31

Sep 15
6

Sep 21
24

Sep 28
60

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
31

Oct 19
62

Oct 23
57

Nov 02
19

Nov 09
21

Nov 16
8

Nov 30
66

Dec 08
0

Dec 14
42

Dec 21
37

Dec 27
57

Jan 11
2026

29

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
17

Sep 27
40

Oct 04
54

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 24.5

Home 65% 13/20 · avg 30.8
Away 30% 6/20 · avg 19.4
vs KC 25% 1/4 · avg 11.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 14.5 60% 24/40
O 19.5 52% 21/40
O 24.5 Today 48% 19/40
O 29.5 40% 16/40
O 34.5 30% 12/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs KC

What KC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds216.4#21
Yds/Att6.4#27
Cmp%61.8%#24
Pass TD1.1#27
Pass Att33.8#8

QBs vs KC · 2026

Each main QB who faced KC this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.2

Avg diff %+56%

Beat their average67% (2/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Sep 27	Malik Willis	56	32.5	+72%
Sep 20	Daniel Jones	10	3.8	+167%
Sep 14	Bo Nix	2	7.0	-71%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	1%17.0 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	28%6.3 yds	15%6.2 yds	39%4.6 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.3 yds#22	4%14.1 yds#20	5%8.0 yds#27
Short	30%5.6 yds#19	14%6.2 yds#24	37%5.3 yds#18

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%14.4 yds	2%13.6 yds	8%7.3 yds
Short	26%7.4 yds	16%6.2 yds	39%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
6	Oronde Gadsden II TE	5	3.2	16	11.0%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	5	2.8	14	10.3%
8	Charlie Kolar TE	3	2.3	7	10.2%
9	Kimani Vidal RB	4	2.0	8	7.1%
10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR	3	1.7	5	6.8%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 24.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DEN	54	Over	24.5	67 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	40	Over	20.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	17	Under	19.5	69 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	2	Under	19.5	68 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	29	Over	21.5	55 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	57	Over	56.5	60 (100%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	37	Over	38.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	42	Over	43.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	0	Under	1.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	66	Over	29.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	8	Under	7.5	57 (85%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	21	Under	35.5	35 (73%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	19	Under	25.5	73 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	57	Over	48.5	65 (100%)
2025-10-23	8	vs MIN	62	Over	55.5	73 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	31	Over	5.5	76 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ MIA	2	Under	5.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	60	Over	60.5	61 (91%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	24	Under	24.5	63 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DEN	6	Under	4.5	86 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	@ LV	31	Over	30.5	58 (100%)
2025-09-05	1	vs KC	32	Over	16.5	65 (100%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ HOU	0	Under	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LV	42	Over	—	75 (100%)
2024-12-28	17	@ NE	12	Under	—	69 (87%)
2024-12-19	16	vs DEN	28	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs TB	0	Under	—	51 (98%)
2024-12-08	14	@ KC	12	Under	—	59 (98%)
2024-12-01	13	@ ATL	1	Under	—	46 (100%)
2024-11-25	12	vs BAL	29	Over	—	69 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs CIN	65	Over	—	67 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs TEN	32	Over	—	59 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CLE	2	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NO	49	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-21	7	@ ARI	8	Under	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DEN	2	Under	—	78 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs KC	0	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ PIT	0	Under	—	36 (78%)
2024-09-15	2	@ CAR	18	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LV	6	Under	—	57 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 24.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.