NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

C.J. Stroud QB

HOU vs JAX · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

9.5 Rush Yds O -118U -106

Hit rate · Last 20 65%13/20 Odds imply 51.3% Over

Season avg: 14.2
Graph avg: 12.9
Graph median: 11.00–30
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds280.4▲+61.5

Att37.0▲+5.6

Cmp%64.3%▲+1.8

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-0.8

Rush Yds14.2▲+0.4

Snaps66.8▲+3.6

Snap %100.0%▲+7.7

9.5

2025

27

Sep 15
22

Sep 21
11

Sep 28
30

Oct 05
25

Oct 20
30

Oct 26
12

Nov 02
0

Nov 30
5

Dec 07
10

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
0

Dec 27
5

Jan 04
0

Jan 12
11

Jan 18
2026

15

Sep 13
29

Sep 20
10

Sep 27
12

Oct 04
5

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 9.5

Home 63% 12/19 · avg 13.7
Away 62% 13/21 · avg 16.6
vs JAX 67% 2/3 · avg 15.3

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 80% 16/20
O 9.5 Today 65% 13/20
O 14.5 35% 7/20
O 19.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds244.2#11
Yds/Att6.9#20
Cmp%64.6%#12
Pass TD0.8#31
Pass Att35.6#4

QBs vs JAX · 2026

Each main QB who faced JAX this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-8.2

Avg diff %-34%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jalen Hurts	2	26.2	-92%
Oct 04	Joe Burrow	6	10.5	-43%
Sep 27	Drake Maye	18	35.8	-50%
Sep 20	Bo Nix	6	6.2	-3%
Sep 13	Deshaun Watson	38	32.2	+18%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	2%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.4 yds	22%8.3 yds	35%5.6 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.0 yds#18	3%17.3 yds#9	9%13.6 yds#6
Short	34%5.6 yds#21	14%5.5 yds#28	31%5.2 yds#24

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	3%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.5 yds	22%8.2 yds	35%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	3	8.3	25	26.3%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	5	6.2	31	18.5%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	5	6.2	31	16.3%
4	Kayshon Boutte WR	5	3.6	18	10.8%
5	Jaylin Noel WR	5	3.4	17	10.0%
6	Jared Wayne WR	4	3.0	12	8.2%
7	Foster Moreau TE	5	2.4	12	7.7%
8	Woody Marks RB	5	2.6	13	6.9%
9	David Montgomery RB	5	1.4	7	4.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 9.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ TEN	5	Under	9.5	66 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	12	Over	10.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	10	Over	10.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	29	Over	11.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	15	Over	10.5	79 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	11	Over	9.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	0	Under	0.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	5	Under	7.5	44 (65%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	0	Under	5.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	0	Under	10.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	10	Over	10.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	5	Under	10.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	0	Under	5.5	76 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	12	Over	15.5	23 (32%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	30	Over	30.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	25	Over	—	76 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	30	Over	14.5	56 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	11	Over	15.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ JAX	22	Over	17.5	63 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	vs TB	27	Over	27.5	49 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 9.5Underdog 9.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.