NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jared Goff QB

DET vs GB · Sun Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET

0.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · All 52%21/40 Odds imply —

Season avg: 3.2
Graph avg: 3.1
Graph median: 1.0-4–24
Over the close: 50%9/18

2026 per game

Pass Yds297.0▲+28.5

Att38.2▲+4.2

Cmp%67.0%▼-1.0

Pass TD2.4▲+0.4

INT0.0▼-0.5

Rush Yds3.2▲+0.6

Snaps68.2▲+4.5

Snap %99.0%▲+0.5

0.5

2024

7

Sep 08
5

Sep 15
6

Sep 22
-2

Sep 30
5

Oct 13
-4

Oct 20
1

Oct 27
-2

Nov 03
2

Nov 10
21

Nov 17
0

Nov 24
1

Nov 28
7

Dec 05
13

Dec 15
-1

Dec 22
-3

Dec 30
0

Jan 05
7

Jan 18
2025

-1

Sep 07
6

Sep 14
6

Sep 22
0

Sep 28
-2

Oct 05
7

Oct 12
7

Oct 20
0

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
-1

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
24

Nov 27
-2

Dec 04
0

Dec 14
-1

Dec 21
2

Dec 25
0

Jan 04
2026

2

Sep 13
7

Sep 17
6

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
1

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 0.5

Home 65% 13/20 · avg 5.1
Away 40% 8/20 · avg 1.1
vs GB 50% 2/4 · avg 7.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 Today 52% 21/40
O 5.5 32% 13/40
O 10.5 8% 3/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs GB

What GB allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds221.2#21
Yds/Att6.4#27
Cmp%62.8%#20
Pass TD1.2#23
Pass Att34.4#9

QBs vs GB · 2026

Each main QB who faced GB this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+5.0

Avg diff %+562%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Dak Prescott	7	13.2	-47%
Oct 11	Tyson Bagent	17	0.5	+3300%
Oct 04	Jalon Daniels	55	23.7	+132%
Sep 24	Michael Penix Jr.	-2	2.3	-186%
Sep 20	Geno Smith	17	5.0	+240%
Sep 13	Kyler Murray	9	28.0	-68%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.4 yds	6%13.8 yds	6%14.0 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	25%8.5 yds	29%6.0 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

GB defense

GB defense: Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%13.8 yds#6	4%10.1 yds#32	7%5.3 yds#29
Short	25%5.1 yds#26	21%6.0 yds#26	35%5.8 yds#11

Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%15.4 yds	6%13.8 yds	6%14.0 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	25%8.5 yds	29%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	5	11.4	57	31.1%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	5	7.4	37	18.9%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	5	6.8	34	18.8%
4	Jameson Williams WR	5	5.8	29	15.2%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	5	3.8	19	9.6%
6	Brock Wright TE	5	1.2	6	3.3%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	5	1.0	5	2.5%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 0.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ARI	1	Over	0.5	63 (95%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	0	Under	1.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	6	Over	0.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	7	Over	0.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	2	Over	0.5	77 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	0	Under	—	73 (100%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	2	Over	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	-1	Under	0.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	0	Under	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	-2	Under	0.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	24	Over	—	63 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	0	Under	0.5	68 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	-1	Under	0.5	59 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	0	Under	0.5	61 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	0	Under	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	7	Over	5.5	68 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	7	Over	0.5	54 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	-2	Under	0.5	62 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	0	Under	—	56 (93%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	6	Over	0.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	6	Over	0.5	56 (95%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	-1	Under	—	67 (100%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	7	Over	—	66 (96%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIN	0	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-12-30	17	@ SF	-3	Under	—	71 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CHI	-1	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	13	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	7	Over	—	80 (100%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	1	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	0	Under	—	72 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs JAX	21	Over	—	63 (80%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	2	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ GB	-2	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs TEN	1	Over	—	42 (88%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	-4	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	5	Over	—	57 (84%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	-2	Under	—	53 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	6	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	5	Over	—	85 (99%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	7	Over	—	61 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 0.5Underdog 0.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 12m ago.