NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brock Purdy QB

SF vs WAS · Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

18.5 Rush Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · Last 10 80%8/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 25.6
Graph avg: 24.9
Graph median: 28.56–37
Over the close: 60%6/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds239.2▲+5.7

Att28.4▼-2.7

Cmp%69.0%▲+1.8

Pass TD2.6▲+0.6

INT0.4▼-0.8

Rush Yds25.6▲+6.7

Snaps57.8▼-4.6

Snap %97.0%▲+0.2

18.5

2025

11

Dec 22
28

Dec 28
21

Jan 03
24

Jan 11
37

Jan 17
2026

29

Sep 10
30

Sep 20
34

Sep 27
29

Oct 04
6

Oct 11
?

Oct 20

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 18.5

Home 59% 10/17 · avg 24.6
Away 43% 6/14 · avg 17.1
vs WAS No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 8.5 90% 9/10
O 13.5 80% 8/10
O 18.5 Today 80% 8/10
O 23.5 70% 7/10
O 28.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs WAS

What WAS allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds247.2#8
Yds/Att6.9#19
Cmp%62.1%#23
Pass TD2.4#2
Pass Att35.6#5

QBs vs WAS · 2026

Each main QB who faced WAS this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+12.5

Avg diff %+141%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jameis Winston	27	5.0	+440%
Oct 04	Daniel Jones	2	5.8	-65%
Sep 27	Sam Darnold	5	7.5	-33%
Sep 20	Dak Prescott	26	10.0	+160%
Sep 13	Jalen Hurts	46	15.2	+202%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.3 yds	5%29.4 yds	5%11.2 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.6 yds	26%5.6 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

WAS defense

WAS defense: Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%4.0 yds#31	4%18.8 yds#7	8%12.8 yds#10
Short	30%5.3 yds#24	16%8.9 yds#3	34%5.2 yds#22

Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.8 yds	6%29.4 yds	4%9.8 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.8 yds	26%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	5	6.8	34	24.5%
2	George Kittle TE	5	5.6	28	20.7%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	5	5.0	25	18.0%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	5	4.0	20	14.3%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	2	1.5	3	5.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	5	1.0	5	3.7%
10	Luke Farrell TE	5	0.8	4	2.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 18.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ SEA	6	Under	24.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	29	Over	17.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	34	Over	16.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	30	Over	13.5	44 (85%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	29	Over	18.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	37	Over	19.5	51 (85%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	24	Over	27.5	59 (100%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	21	Over	21.5	42 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	28	Over	28.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	11	Under	10.5	63 (95%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 17.5Underdog 19.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.