NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Sam Darnold QB

SEA vs KC · Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET

3.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · All 60%26/43 Odds imply —

Season avg: 7.0
Graph avg: 8.7
Graph median: 6.0-3–39
Over the close: 46%10/22

2026 per game

Pass Yds206.6▼-29.4

Att29.8▲+1.4

Cmp%60.4%▼-6.3

Pass TD1.4▼-0.1

INT1.4▲+0.7

Rush Yds7.0▲+1.5

Snaps56.0▼-4.6

Snap %82.0%▼-14.2

3.5

2024

15

Sep 29
11

Oct 06
39

Oct 20
6

Oct 24
14

Nov 03
28

Nov 10
18

Nov 17
-1

Nov 24
22

Dec 01
7

Dec 08
0

Dec 16
11

Dec 22
-3

Dec 29
10

Jan 05
19

Jan 13
2025

14

Sep 07
0

Sep 14
0

Sep 21
24

Sep 25
0

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
1

Oct 20
0

Nov 02
-2

Nov 09
11

Nov 16
-1

Nov 23
0

Nov 30
23

Dec 07
5

Dec 14
7

Dec 18
2

Dec 28
9

Jan 03
0

Jan 17
9

Jan 25
5

Feb 08
2026

0

Sep 09
5

Sep 27
6

Oct 04
5

Oct 11
19

Oct 15
?

Oct 26

Showing the latest 40 of 43 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 54% 12/22 · avg 7.6
Away 67% 14/21 · avg 9.9
vs KC No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 Today 60% 26/43
O 8.5 42% 18/43
O 13.5 28% 12/43

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs KC

What KC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds204.8#28
Yds/Att6.1#29
Cmp%60.7%#26
Pass TD0.9#31
Pass Att33.6#13

QBs vs KC · 2026

Each main QB who faced KC this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.3

Avg diff %+1%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Justin Herbert	26	28.4	-8%
Sep 27	Malik Willis	56	32.5	+72%
Sep 20	Daniel Jones	10	9.0	+11%
Sep 14	Bo Nix	2	7.0	-71%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.0 yds	4%11.5 yds	7%16.4 yds
Short	32%6.3 yds	16%7.5 yds	36%6.2 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.7 yds#12	5%14.2 yds#20	5%4.2 yds#31
Short	27%5.0 yds#27	17%6.2 yds#24	37%4.8 yds#28

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.5 yds	4%11.6 yds	8%13.1 yds
Short	33%6.0 yds	16%7.0 yds	35%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	6	11.0	66	35.6%
2	Rashid Shaheed WR	6	4.5	27	14.9%
3	Cooper Kupp WR	6	4.2	25	12.4%
4	AJ Barner TE	6	4.0	24	12.4%
5	Jadarian Price RB	3	2.3	7	7.6%
6	Tory Horton WR	3	3.0	9	7.5%
7	George Holani RB	6	2.0	12	6.5%
8	Emanuel Wilson RB	6	1.3	8	5.6%
9	Elijah Arroyo TE	2	1.0	2	3.8%
10	Brady Russell RB	5	0.6	3	2.1%

Game log · 43 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	@ DEN	19	Over	5.5	85 (100%)
2026-10-11	5	vs SF	5	Over	4.5	63 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs LAC	6	Over	4.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ WAS	5	Over	6.5	67 (100%)
2026-09-09	1	vs NE	0	Under	5.5	5 (10%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	5	Over	5.5	72 (100%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	9	Over	4.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	0	Under	4.5	47 (89%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	9	Over	5.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	2	Under	0.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-18	16	vs LA	7	Over	7.5	68 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs IND	5	Over	5.5	60 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	23	Over	15.5	53 (87%)
2025-11-30	13	vs MIN	0	Under	1.5	64 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	-1	Under	2.5	48 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	11	Over	5.5	84 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ARI	-2	Under	5.5	56 (90%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	0	Under	—	48 (94%)
2025-10-20	7	vs HOU	1	Under	—	72 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ JAX	2	Under	5.5	55 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TB	0	Under	6.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-25	4	@ ARI	24	Over	5.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NO	0	Under	—	39 (68%)
2025-09-14	2	@ PIT	0	Under	5.5	65 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs SF	14	Over	10.5	52 (100%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	@ LA	19	Over	—	74 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ DET	10	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-12-29	17	vs GB	-3	Under	—	72 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ SEA	11	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-12-16	15	vs CHI	0	Under	—	77 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs ATL	7	Over	—	58 (97%)
2024-12-01	13	vs ARI	22	Over	—	53 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CHI	-1	Under	—	69 (97%)
2024-11-17	11	@ TEN	18	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ JAX	28	Over	—	84 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs IND	14	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-10-24	8	@ LA	6	Over	—	50 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs DET	39	Over	—	60 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs NYJ	11	Over	—	72 (99%)
2024-09-29	4	@ GB	15	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs HOU	0	Under	—	61 (97%)
2024-09-15	2	vs SF	32	Over	—	54 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ NYG	3	Under	—	55 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 5m ago.