NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Drake Maye QB

NE vs NYJ · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

27.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 32.2
Graph avg: 32.5
Graph median: 25.02–66
Over the close: 50%10/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds245.6▼-3.1

Att30.2▲+1.1

Cmp%65.6%▼-3.7

Pass TD1.6▼-0.2

INT1.4▲+0.8

Rush Yds32.2▲+2.3

Snaps65.6▲+3.0

Snap %96.2%▼-0.4

27.5

2025

62

Oct 19
50

Oct 26
20

Nov 02
13

Nov 09
2

Nov 13
22

Nov 23
12

Dec 01
43

Dec 14
25

Dec 21
22

Dec 28
41

Jan 04
66

Jan 11
10

Jan 18
65

Jan 25
37

Feb 08
2026

47

Sep 09
17

Sep 20
18

Sep 27
54

Oct 04
25

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 27.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 29.6
Away 42% 8/19 · avg 32.5
vs NYJ 25% 1/4 · avg 20.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 75% 15/20
O 22.5 55% 11/20
O 27.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 32.5 45% 9/20
O 37.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds228.7#16
Yds/Att7.2#13
Cmp%66.1%#8
Pass TD2.2#4
Pass Att31.6#18

QBs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main QB who faced NYJ this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.9

Avg diff %+50%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Deshaun Watson	40	31.8	+26%
Oct 04	Tyson Bagent	1	8.5	-88%
Sep 27	Jared Goff	6	2.5	+140%
Sep 13	Cam Ward	21	9.5	+121%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%10.4 yds	3%10.5 yds	11%13.6 yds
Short	31%5.8 yds	15%7.4 yds	27%6.1 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.0 yds#17	4%14.6 yds#18	8%13.0 yds#8
Short	32%5.6 yds#20	20%6.9 yds#16	28%6.2 yds#5

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%11.0 yds	3%9.4 yds	11%14.1 yds
Short	31%5.6 yds	16%7.4 yds	26%6.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
2	Romeo Doubs WR	5	4.6	23	15.3%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	5	4.4	22	14.6%
4	Hunter Henry TE	5	3.8	19	13.4%
5	A.J. Brown WR	1	4.0	4	12.9%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	5	3.8	19	12.5%
7	Efton Chism III WR	4	3.2	13	10.5%
8	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
9	Eli Raridon TE	4	2.2	9	7.4%
10	Kyle Williams WR	5	2.0	10	7.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 27.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	25	Under	31.5	75 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	54	Over	27.5	76 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	18	Under	26.5	51 (81%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	17	Under	27.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	47	Over	26.5	71 (100%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	37	Over	35.5	71 (100%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	65	Over	29.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	10	Under	36.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	66	Over	68.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	41	Over	16.5	45 (76%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	22	Under	24.5	52 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	25	Under	15.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	43	Over	43.5	52 (100%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	12	Under	11.5	65 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	22	Under	15.5	71 (100%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	2	Under	4.5	67 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	13	Under	14.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	20	Under	22.5	68 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	50	Over	28.5	68 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	62	Over	23.5	55 (85%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 2m ago.