NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

J.K. Dobbins RB

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

56.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · Last 5 20%1/5 Odds imply —

Season avg: 45.0
Graph avg: 46.8
Graph median: 41.036–68
Over the close: 20%1/5

2026 per game

Carries13.5▼-1.8

Rush Yds45.0▼-32.2

Rush TD0.3▼-0.1

Targets1.5▲+0.1

Rec1.3▲+0.2

Rec Yds4.5▲+0.8

Snaps26.7▼-7.3

Snap %43.7%▼-7.4

56.5

2026

36

Sep 20
49

Sep 27
40

Oct 04
68

Oct 11
41

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 56.5

Home 50% 7/14 · avg 66.4
Away 62% 10/16 · avg 65.2
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 40.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 46.5 40% 2/5
O 51.5 20% 1/5
O 56.5 Today 20% 1/5
O 61.5 20% 1/5
O 66.5 20% 1/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds116.5#1
Yds/Carry4.4#9
Rush TD0.7#10
Targets5.9#11
Rec Yds38.2#6

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+18.2

Avg diff %+32%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Kyren Williams	50	68.6	-27%
Oct 11	Jahmyr Gibbs	151	88.2	+71%
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	58	59.0	-2%
Sep 27	Christian McCaffrey	75	52.8	+42%
Sep 20	Emanuel Wilson	92	42.2	+118%
Sep 13	Omarion Hampton	43	49.2	-13%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	69%3.5 yds	19%3.0 yds	12%-1.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 56.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	41	Under	48.5	31 (52%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	68	Over	50.5	32 (52%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	40	Under	59.5	21 (32%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	49	Under	50.5	33 (49%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	36	Under	60.5	21 (34%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 56.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 12m ago.