NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

J.K. Dobbins RB

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

56.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · All 57%17/30 Odds imply —

Season avg: 45.0
Graph avg: 65.8
Graph median: 62.026–135
Over the close: 47%7/15

2026 per game

Carries13.5▼-1.8

Rush Yds45.0▼-32.2

Rush TD0.3▼-0.1

Targets1.5▲+0.1

Rec1.3▲+0.2

Rec Yds4.5▲+0.8

Snaps26.7▼-7.3

Snap %43.7%▼-7.4

56.5

2024

135

Sep 08
131

Sep 15
44

Sep 22
32

Sep 29
96

Oct 13
40

Oct 21
57

Oct 27
85

Nov 03
50

Nov 10
56

Nov 17
40

Nov 25
76

Dec 28
63

Jan 05
26

Jan 11
2025

63

Sep 07
76

Sep 14
83

Sep 21
101

Sep 29
79

Oct 05
40

Oct 12
81

Oct 19
111

Oct 26
61

Nov 02
77

Nov 06
2026

36

Sep 14
36

Sep 20
49

Sep 27
40

Oct 04
68

Oct 11
41

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 56.5

Home 50% 7/14 · avg 66.4
Away 62% 10/16 · avg 65.2
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 40.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 46.5 67% 20/30
O 51.5 60% 18/30
O 56.5 Today 57% 17/30
O 61.5 50% 15/30
O 66.5 43% 13/30

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds116.5#1
Yds/Carry4.4#9
Rush TD0.7#10
Targets5.9#11
Rec Yds38.2#6

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+18.2

Avg diff %+32%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Kyren Williams	50	68.6	-27%
Oct 11	Jahmyr Gibbs	151	88.2	+71%
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	58	59.0	-2%
Sep 27	Christian McCaffrey	75	52.8	+42%
Sep 20	Emanuel Wilson	92	42.2	+118%
Sep 13	Omarion Hampton	43	49.2	-13%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	69%3.5 yds	19%3.0 yds	12%-1.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 30 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 56.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	41	Under	48.5	31 (52%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	68	Over	50.5	32 (52%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	40	Under	59.5	21 (32%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	49	Under	50.5	33 (49%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	36	Under	60.5	21 (34%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	36	Under	49.5	22 (43%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	77	Over	67.5	32 (52%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	61	Over	55.5	29 (46%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	111	Over	105.5	33 (52%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	81	Over	82.5	40 (49%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	40	Under	40.5	30 (50%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	79	Over	51.5	39 (53%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	101	Over	65.5	36 (44%)
2025-09-21	3	@ LAC	83	Over	—	35 (67%)
2025-09-14	2	@ IND	76	Over	76.5	26 (45%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TEN	63	Over	61.5	40 (53%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ HOU	26	Under	—	34 (61%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LV	63	Over	—	49 (65%)
2024-12-28	17	@ NE	76	Over	—	42 (53%)
2024-11-25	12	vs BAL	40	Under	—	21 (30%)
2024-11-17	11	vs CIN	56	Under	—	49 (73%)
2024-11-10	10	vs TEN	50	Under	—	39 (66%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CLE	85	Over	—	42 (74%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NO	57	Over	—	54 (82%)
2024-10-21	7	@ ARI	40	Under	—	45 (68%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DEN	96	Over	—	57 (73%)
2024-09-29	4	vs KC	32	Under	—	40 (71%)
2024-09-22	3	@ PIT	44	Under	—	30 (65%)
2024-09-15	2	@ CAR	131	Over	—	32 (46%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LV	135	Over	—	33 (58%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 56.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 12m ago.