NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Kyler Murray QB

MIN vs IND · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

18.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · All 65%17/26 Odds imply —

Season avg: 23.2
Graph avg: 32.2
Graph median: 28.53–83
Over the close: 44%4/9

2026 per game

Pass Yds165.5▼-26.9

Att25.2▼-7.0

Cmp%68.3%-0.0

Pass TD0.5▼-0.7

INT0.5▼-0.1

Rush Yds23.2▼-11.4

Snaps54.8▼-8.9

Snap %79.2%▼-19.5

18.5

2024

57

Sep 08
59

Sep 15
45

Sep 22
3

Sep 29
83

Oct 06
14

Oct 13
64

Oct 21
19

Oct 27
6

Nov 03
21

Nov 10
9

Nov 24
48

Dec 01
16

Dec 08
11

Dec 15
63

Dec 22
32

Dec 28
22

Jan 05
2025

38

Sep 07
32

Sep 14
37

Sep 21
41

Sep 25
25

Oct 05
2026

9

Sep 13
17

Sep 27
16

Oct 04
51

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 18.5

Home 57% 8/14 · avg 26.4
Away 75% 9/12 · avg 39.0
vs IND No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 8.5 92% 24/26
O 13.5 81% 21/26
O 18.5 Today 65% 17/26
O 23.5 54% 14/26
O 28.5 50% 13/26

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs IND

What IND allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds247.6#7
Yds/Att7.5#7
Cmp%61.9%#23
Pass TD1.6#12
Pass Att32.8#19

QBs vs IND · 2026

Each main QB who faced IND this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+6.0

Avg diff %+99%

Beat their average67% (4/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Cam Ward	7	11.8	-41%
Oct 11	Aaron Rodgers	6	2.2	+173%
Oct 04	Marcus Mariota	35	7.0	+400%
Sep 27	C.J. Stroud	10	13.2	-24%
Sep 20	Patrick Mahomes	17	10.0	+70%
Sep 13	Lamar Jackson	40	34.7	+15%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%15.9 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%7.5 yds
Short	27%4.8 yds	17%7.4 yds	35%5.5 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%12.2 yds#11	3%13.7 yds#22	10%11.7 yds#12
Short	30%6.0 yds#12	20%9.2 yds#1	33%5.8 yds#12

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 9 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%12.0 yds	3%7.6 yds	8%10.3 yds
Short	32%4.6 yds	18%7.7 yds	31%4.4 yds

Last 9 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	4	6.0	24	25.7%
2	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
3	T.J. Hockenson TE	5	5.4	27	20.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	5	3.6	18	12.6%
5	Gavin Bartholomew TE	2	3.5	7	11.9%
6	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
7	Tai Felton WR	3	2.0	6	7.1%
8	Myles Price WR	5	1.4	7	5.0%
9	Jauan Jennings WR	4	1.2	5	4.7%
10	Ben Yurosek TE	1	1.0	1	3.4%

Game log · 26 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 18.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NO	51	Over	17.5	71 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs MIA	16	Under	21.5	78 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ TB	17	Under	20.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	9	Under	23.5	11 (17%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	25	Over	30.5	65 (96%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	41	Over	29.5	67 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	37	Over	37.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	32	Over	20.5	54 (98%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NO	38	Over	29.5	66 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs SF	22	Over	—	60 (92%)
2024-12-28	17	@ LA	32	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CAR	63	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NE	11	Under	—	63 (90%)
2024-12-08	14	vs SEA	16	Under	—	71 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ MIN	48	Over	—	82 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ SEA	9	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NYJ	21	Over	—	52 (88%)
2024-11-03	9	vs CHI	6	Under	—	55 (95%)
2024-10-27	8	@ MIA	19	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-21	7	vs LAC	64	Over	—	54 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	@ GB	14	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	@ SF	83	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs WAS	3	Under	—	59 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs DET	45	Over	—	59 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LA	59	Over	—	60 (91%)
2024-09-08	1	@ BUF	57	Over	—	61 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 18.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 6m ago.