NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Malik Willis QB

MIA vs NYJ · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

40.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · All 40%6/15 Odds imply —

Season avg: 37.2
Graph avg: 29.8
Graph median: 23.0-2–74
Over the close: 57%4/7

2026 per game

Pass Yds169.8▲+64.3

Att26.0▲+17.2

Cmp%56.2%▼-29.6

Pass TD0.4▼-0.3

INT0.8▲+0.8

Rush Yds37.2▲+6.5

Snaps58.6▲+34.1

Snap %100.0%▲+57.8

40.5

2024

0

Sep 06
41

Sep 15
73

Sep 22
23

Oct 27
-2

Dec 23
3

Jan 05
2025

16

Nov 16
3

Nov 23
44

Dec 20
60

Dec 27
2026

39

Sep 13
6

Sep 20
56

Sep 27
11

Oct 04
74

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 40.5

Home 57% 4/7 · avg 33.6
Away 25% 2/8 · avg 26.5
vs NYJ No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 30.5 47% 7/15
O 35.5 47% 7/15
O 40.5 Today 40% 6/15
O 45.5 27% 4/15
O 50.5 27% 4/15

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds239.5#15
Yds/Att7.3#11
Cmp%65.4%#9
Pass TD2.4#2
Pass Att32.7#21

QBs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main QB who faced NYJ this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.1

Avg diff %+15%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Drake Maye	24	32.2	-25%
Oct 11	Deshaun Watson	40	31.2	+28%
Oct 04	Tyson Bagent	1	8.5	-88%
Sep 27	Jared Goff	6	2.5	+140%
Sep 20	Jordan Love	0	2.0	-100%
Sep 13	Cam Ward	21	9.0	+133%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIA offense

MIA offense: Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.9 yds	8%12.1 yds	9%10.8 yds
Short	30%7.0 yds	14%7.1 yds	32%4.6 yds

Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.0 yds#20	4%14.6 yds#17	8%14.2 yds#4
Short	30%5.3 yds#25	19%7.0 yds#17	31%6.5 yds#5

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 9 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.8 yds	8%14.5 yds	11%15.9 yds
Short	24%5.5 yds	12%7.4 yds	35%4.7 yds

Last 9 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Malik Washington WR	5	7.2	36	28.0%
2	Caleb Douglas WR	2	5.0	10	19.5%
3	Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	4	4.2	17	17.3%
4	De'Von Achane RB	3	4.0	12	15.8%
5	Greg Dulcich TE	4	4.2	17	14.9%
6	Chris Bell WR	5	3.0	15	11.4%
7	Jalen Tolbert WR	2	1.5	3	6.8%
8	DJ Herman RB	2	1.5	3	6.5%
9	Will Kacmarek TE	5	1.2	6	5.5%
10	Ollie Gordon II RB	4	1.2	5	5.1%

Game log · 15 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 40.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CIN	74	Over	32.5	66 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ MIN	11	Under	30.5	39 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs KC	56	Over	33.5	73 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ SF	6	Under	37.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LV	39	Under	39.5	56 (100%)
2025-12-27	17	vs BAL	60	Over	50.5	39 (83%)
2025-12-20	16	@ CHI	44	Over	39.5	46 (64%)
2025-11-23	12	vs MIN	3	Under	—	6 (9%)
2025-11-16	11	@ NYG	16	Under	—	7 (13%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CHI	3	Under	—	43 (66%)
2024-12-23	16	vs NO	-2	Under	—	9 (13%)
2024-10-27	8	@ JAX	23	Under	—	26 (37%)
2024-09-22	3	@ TEN	73	Over	—	63 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs IND	41	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-06	1	@ PHI	0	Under	—	2 (3%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 39.5PrizePicks 40.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 5m ago.