NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

TreVeyon Henderson RB

NE vs CHI · Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

28.5 Rush Yds O -116U -108

Hit rate · This season 60%3/5 Odds imply 50.8% Over

Season avg: 38.8
Graph avg: 38.8
Graph median: 31.022–76
Over the close: 40%2/5

2026 per game

Carries9.8▼-0.2

Rush Yds38.8▼-8.2

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets1.0▼-1.3

Rec0.6▼-1.3

Rec Yds6.2▼-5.9

Snaps22.4▼-5.4

Snap %34.8%▼-8.2

28.5

2026

76

Sep 20
23

Sep 27
42

Oct 04
22

Oct 11
31

Oct 18
?

Oct 23

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 28.5

Home 60% 9/15 · avg 49.8
Away 36% 4/11 · avg 39.5
vs CHI No games

Alt lines this season · how often Over cleared

O 18.5 100% 5/5
O 23.5 60% 3/5
O 28.5 Today 60% 3/5
O 33.5 40% 2/5
O 38.5 40% 2/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds93.5#18
Yds/Carry4.5#6
Rush TD0.6#16
Targets4.8#26
Rec Yds29.1#20

RBs vs CHI · 2026

Each main RB who faced CHI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.3

Avg diff %+29%

Beat their average67% (4/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Bijan Robinson	61	116.0	-47%
Oct 11	MarShawn Lloyd	31	18.2	+70%
Oct 04	Braelon Allen	59	51.0	+16%
Sep 28	Saquon Barkley	82	33.3	+146%
Sep 20	Aaron Jones	105	76.2	+38%
Sep 13	Chuba Hubbard	49	94.2	-48%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	3%10.5 yds	10%14.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%7.2 yds	29%5.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.1 yds#8	4%21.1 yds#1	9%12.8 yds#10
Short	29%4.5 yds#32	19%8.5 yds#5	31%6.5 yds#4

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	5%0.0 yds
Short	37%1.6 yds	21%7.5 yds	37%7.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	2	7.0	14	23.1%
2	DeMario Douglas WR	6	5.0	30	16.7%
3	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
4	Hunter Henry TE	6	4.0	24	13.9%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	6	3.2	19	10.4%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	5	2.8	14	9.0%
9	Eli Raridon TE	5	2.4	12	7.9%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 28.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	31	Over	31.5	16 (24%)
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	22	Under	46.5	12 (16%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	42	Over	40.5	28 (37%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	23	Under	41.5	23 (37%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	76	Over	33.5	33 (60%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 28.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.