NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Keaton Mitchell RB

LAC vs KC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

18.5 Rush Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · All 48%11/23 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 27.0
Graph avg: 22.0
Graph median: 13.00–76
Over the close: 47%7/15

2026 per game

Carries6.6▲+2.1

Rush Yds27.0▲+0.8

Rush TD0.0▼-0.1

Targets2.8▲+1.9

Rec2.4▲+1.7

Rec Yds10.4▲+5.6

Snaps21.8▲+11.6

Snap %33.0%▲+15.5

18.5

2024

0

Nov 07
0

Nov 17
20

Dec 25
10

Jan 04
0

Jan 19
2025

8

Oct 05
0

Oct 12
43

Oct 26
11

Oct 30
31

Nov 09
31

Nov 16
10

Nov 23
19

Nov 27
76

Dec 07
66

Dec 14
13

Dec 21
31

Dec 27
2

Jan 04
2026

9

Sep 13
24

Sep 20
52

Sep 27
39

Oct 04
11

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 18.5

Home 33% 4/12 · avg 18.6
Away 64% 7/11 · avg 25.7
vs KC No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 8.5 74% 17/23
O 13.5 48% 11/23
O 18.5 Today 48% 11/23
O 23.5 39% 9/23
O 28.5 35% 8/23

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs KC

What KC allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds88.5#19
Yds/Carry3.6#26
Rush TD0.6#16
Targets4.8#23
Rec Yds29.9#20

RBs vs KC · 2026

Each main RB who faced KC this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.9

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Ashton Jeanty	58	58.2	+0%
Sep 27	Ollie Gordon II	41	65.0	-37%
Sep 20	Jonathan Taylor	92	76.5	+20%
Sep 14	J.K. Dobbins	36	46.8	-23%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	1%17.0 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	28%6.3 yds	15%6.2 yds	39%4.6 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.3 yds#22	4%14.1 yds#20	5%8.0 yds#27
Short	30%5.6 yds#19	14%6.2 yds#24	37%5.3 yds#18

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	36%6.6 yds	16%0.5 yds	48%4.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
6	Oronde Gadsden II TE	5	3.2	16	11.0%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	5	2.8	14	10.3%
8	Charlie Kolar TE	3	2.3	7	10.2%
9	Kimani Vidal RB	4	2.0	8	7.1%
10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR	3	1.7	5	6.8%

Game log · 23 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 18.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DEN	11	Under	32.5	23 (34%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	39	Over	18.5	26 (37%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	52	Over	14.5	26 (38%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	24	Over	23.5	17 (25%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	9	Under	24.5	17 (31%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	2	Under	2.5	7 (14%)
2025-12-27	17	@ GB	31	Over	35.5	14 (18%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	13	Under	13.5	19 (35%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CIN	66	Over	20.5	16 (39%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	76	Over	13.5	12 (15%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	19	Over	19.5	8 (13%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	10	Under	10.5	12 (19%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	31	Over	25.5	16 (26%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	31	Over	10.5	5 (7%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	11	Under	14.5	10 (18%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	43	Over	—	7 (11%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	8	Under	—	4 (9%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ BUF	0	Under	—	—
2025-01-04	18	vs CLE	10	Under	—	15 (21%)
2024-12-25	17	@ HOU	20	Over	—	17 (27%)
2024-11-17	11	@ PIT	0	Under	—	2 (3%)
2024-11-07	10	vs CIN	0	Under	—	2 (3%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 18.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.