NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Matthew Stafford QB

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

1.5 Rush Yds O +112U -146

Hit rate · All 28%12/43 Odds imply 44.3% Over

Season avg: 4.2
Graph avg: 1.9
Graph median: 0.0-6–18
Over the close: 36%8/22

2026 per game

Pass Yds314.4▲+32.2

Att43.2▲+7.4

Cmp%64.4%▲+0.9

Pass TD1.8▼-0.8

INT1.2▲+0.8

Rush Yds4.2▲+3.4

Snaps73.0▲+6.4

Snap %96.8%▼-2.0

1.5

2024

-1

Sep 29
0

Oct 06
-2

Oct 20
-4

Oct 24
0

Nov 03
0

Nov 11
0

Nov 17
15

Nov 24
3

Dec 01
0

Dec 08
18

Dec 12
-4

Dec 22
16

Dec 28
-1

Jan 13
5

Jan 19
2025

-2

Sep 07
-6

Sep 14
0

Sep 21
4

Sep 28
0

Oct 02
1

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
-4

Nov 02
-3

Nov 09
0

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
-1

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
2

Dec 14
6

Dec 18
0

Dec 29
3

Jan 04
0

Jan 10
-1

Jan 18
16

Jan 25
2026

-1

Sep 10
-1

Sep 21
13

Sep 27
10

Oct 04
0

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Showing the latest 40 of 43 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 25% 5/20 · avg 1.2
Away 30% 7/23 · avg 2.5
vs ARI 50% 2/4 · avg 4.8

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 Today 28% 12/43
O 6.5 14% 6/43
O 11.5 12% 5/43

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds258.8#4
Yds/Att8.3#3
Cmp%66.1%#10
Pass TD2.8#1
Pass Att31.0#25

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.4

Avg diff %-31%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jared Goff	1	3.8	-73%
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	0	14.0	-100%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	34	23.5	+45%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	29	28.2	+3%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	17%8.0 yds	33%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 43 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	vs BUF	0	Under	0.5	82 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ PHI	10	Over	0.5	84 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DEN	13	Over	0.5	86 (100%)
2026-09-21	2	vs NYG	-1	Under	0.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-10	1	vs SF	-1	Under	0.5	51 (84%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	16	Over	0.5	61 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	-1	Under	0.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	0	Under	0.5	76 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs ARI	3	Over	—	72 (96%)
2025-12-29	17	@ ATL	0	Under	5.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-18	16	@ SEA	6	Over	4.5	92 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs DET	2	Over	0.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ARI	0	Under	—	58 (83%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CAR	-1	Under	0.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs TB	0	Under	0.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SEA	0	Under	0.5	51 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	-3	Under	5.5	69 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs NO	-4	Under	0.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ JAX	1	Under	0.5	67 (96%)
2025-10-12	6	@ BAL	1	Under	0.5	53 (100%)
2025-10-02	5	vs SF	0	Under	0.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs IND	4	Over	0.5	75 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ PHI	0	Under	0.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ TEN	-6	Under	—	61 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs HOU	-2	Under	0.5	60 (100%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ PHI	5	Over	—	71 (100%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	vs MIN	-1	Under	—	53 (100%)
2024-12-28	17	vs ARI	16	Over	—	57 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ NYJ	-4	Under	—	52 (100%)
2024-12-12	15	@ SF	18	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs BUF	0	Under	—	77 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NO	3	Over	—	56 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs PHI	15	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ NE	0	Under	—	52 (100%)
2024-11-11	10	vs MIA	0	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ SEA	0	Under	—	77 (100%)
2024-10-24	8	vs MIN	-4	Under	—	72 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs LV	-2	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs GB	0	Under	—	78 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ CHI	-1	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs SF	0	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ ARI	0	Under	—	52 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ DET	0	Under	—	78 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 6m ago.