NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Ashton Jeanty RB

LV vs BUF · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

55.5 Rush Yds O -110U -114

Hit rate · All 50%11/22 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 58.2
Graph avg: 57.5
Graph median: 53.07–138
Over the close: 14%3/22

2026 per game

Carries17.6▲+2.0

Rush Yds58.2▲+0.8

Rush TD0.0▼-0.3

Targets6.0▲+1.7

Rec4.4▲+1.2

Rec Yds43.0▲+22.6

Snaps49.6▲+4.2

Snap %71.8%▼-6.1

55.5

2025

38

Sep 07
43

Sep 15
63

Sep 21
138

Sep 28
67

Oct 05
75

Oct 12
21

Oct 19
42

Nov 02
60

Nov 06
7

Nov 17
50

Nov 23
31

Nov 30
30

Dec 07
35

Dec 14
128

Dec 21
60

Dec 28
87

Jan 04
2026

102

Sep 13
48

Sep 20
56

Sep 27
58

Oct 04
27

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 55.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 62.9
Away 46% 5/11 · avg 52.2
vs BUF No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 45.5 59% 13/22
O 50.5 50% 11/22
O 55.5 Today 50% 11/22
O 60.5 32% 7/22
O 65.5 27% 6/22

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds81.2#25
Yds/Carry3.9#21
Rush TD0.5#21
Targets7.6#1
Rec Yds43.2#2

RBs vs BUF · 2026

Each main RB who faced BUF this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-13.2

Avg diff %-4%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Kyren Williams	49	73.5	-33%
Oct 04	Rhamondre Stevenson	47	45.0	+4%
Sep 27	Omarion Hampton	56	53.8	+4%
Sep 17	Jahmyr Gibbs	52	113.0	-54%
Sep 13	Woody Marks	42	26.8	+57%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.5 yds	3%5.3 yds	5%7.0 yds
Short	30%5.6 yds	19%7.0 yds	35%5.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.5 yds#14	4%8.1 yds#32	9%9.2 yds#25
Short	30%5.5 yds#22	16%6.5 yds#20	35%5.4 yds#16

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%60.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	39%6.3 yds	33%5.2 yds	26%3.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	3	11.3	34	31.3%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	5	6.0	30	17.6%
3	Tre Tucker WR	5	5.6	28	16.4%
4	Michael Mayer TE	5	5.0	25	14.3%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	5	2.8	14	8.0%
8	Malik Benson WR	5	1.6	8	5.0%
9	Ian Thomas TE	3	1.3	4	3.5%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 22 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 55.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NE	27	Under	45.5	32 (53%)
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	58	Over	59.5	56 (67%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	56	Over	68.5	59 (84%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	48	Under	63.5	51 (81%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	102	Over	60.5	50 (74%)
2026-01-04	18	vs KC	87	Over	95.5	60 (97%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	60	Over	73.5	48 (81%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	128	Over	46.5	50 (93%)
2025-12-14	15	@ PHI	35	Under	35.5	30 (71%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	30	Under	30.5	35 (70%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	31	Under	31.5	46 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	50	Under	45.5	64 (81%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	7	Under	10.5	44 (73%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	60	Over	60.5	52 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	42	Under	50.5	58 (91%)
2025-10-19	7	@ KC	21	Under	59.5	22 (63%)
2025-10-12	6	vs TEN	75	Over	85.5	48 (79%)
2025-10-05	5	@ IND	67	Over	70.5	37 (54%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CHI	138	Over	140.5	44 (85%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	63	Over	63.5	40 (61%)
2025-09-15	2	vs LAC	43	Under	66.5	39 (56%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NE	38	Under	45.5	54 (86%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 49.5PrizePicks 55.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 2m ago.