NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tony Pollard RB

TEN vs IND · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

54.5 Rush Yds O -110U -114

Hit rate · All 58%22/38 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 54.6
Graph avg: 64.1
Graph median: 60.514–161
Over the close: 46%10/22

2026 per game

Carries13.6▼-0.6

Rush Yds54.6▼-9.0

Rush TD0.2▼-0.1

Targets2.4-0.0

Rec1.6▼-0.3

Rec Yds4.8▼-7.3

Snaps30.2▼-8.4

Snap %52.2%▼-10.3

54.5

2024

82

Sep 08
62

Sep 15
14

Sep 22
88

Sep 30
93

Oct 13
61

Oct 20
94

Oct 27
128

Nov 03
44

Nov 10
15

Nov 17
119

Nov 24
35

Dec 01
102

Dec 08
45

Dec 15
35

Dec 22
62

Jan 05
2025

60

Sep 07
92

Sep 14
45

Sep 21
64

Sep 28
67

Oct 05
34

Oct 12
18

Oct 19
44

Oct 26
56

Nov 02
22

Nov 16
20

Nov 23
60

Nov 30
161

Dec 07
104

Dec 14
102

Dec 21
85

Dec 28
48

Jan 04
2026

35

Sep 13
64

Sep 20
74

Sep 27
48

Oct 04
52

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 54.5

Home 55% 11/20 · avg 58.6
Away 61% 11/18 · avg 70.1
vs IND 25% 1/4 · avg 54.2

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 44.5 71% 27/38
O 49.5 60% 23/38
O 54.5 Today 58% 22/38
O 59.5 55% 21/38
O 64.5 37% 14/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs IND

What IND allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds97.9#13
Yds/Carry4.5#11
Rush TD0.7#13
Targets5.3#18
Rec Yds33.3#15

RBs vs IND · 2026

Each main RB who faced IND this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.5

Avg diff %-8%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jaylen Warren	101	77.2	+31%
Oct 04	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	15	56.0	-73%
Sep 27	Woody Marks	15	33.5	-55%
Sep 20	Kenneth Walker III	117	140.0	-16%
Sep 13	Derrick Henry	144	83.0	+73%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%5.7 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.4 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	10%4.1 yds	40%4.4 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.6 yds#8	3%12.3 yds#24	10%12.0 yds#12
Short	28%6.1 yds#11	21%8.8 yds#4	32%5.9 yds#11

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	35%2.8 yds	19%2.8 yds	42%4.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	5	7.4	37	26.7%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	5	6.0	30	19.3%
3	Tyjae Spears RB	5	3.2	16	11.1%
4	Gunnar Helm TE	5	2.6	13	9.5%
5	Elic Ayomanor WR	5	2.4	12	9.2%
6	Tony Pollard RB	5	2.4	12	8.3%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	4	2.0	8	7.6%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	5	1.4	7	4.9%
9	Chimere Dike WR	5	1.4	7	4.3%
10	Kylen Granson TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 54.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs HOU	52	Under	50.5	30 (48%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	48	Under	48.5	34 (53%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	74	Over	59.5	32 (53%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	64	Over	40.5	29 (55%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	35	Under	49.5	26 (52%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	48	Under	67.5	34 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	85	Over	81.5	37 (50%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	102	Over	57.5	40 (55%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	104	Over	98.5	28 (53%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	161	Over	164.5	39 (59%)
2025-11-30	13	vs JAX	60	Over	55.5	27 (46%)
2025-11-23	12	vs SEA	20	Under	20.5	39 (51%)
2025-11-16	11	vs HOU	22	Under	41.5	29 (49%)
2025-11-02	9	vs LAC	56	Over	56.5	29 (62%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	44	Under	30.5	33 (46%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NE	18	Under	45.5	30 (57%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	34	Under	35.5	26 (43%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	67	Over	54.5	49 (73%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	64	Over	65.5	43 (86%)
2025-09-21	3	vs IND	45	Under	67.5	64 (91%)
2025-09-14	2	vs LA	92	Over	66.5	59 (89%)
2025-09-07	1	@ DEN	60	Over	63.5	51 (89%)
2025-01-05	18	vs HOU	62	Over	—	45 (73%)
2024-12-22	16	@ IND	35	Under	—	24 (39%)
2024-12-15	15	vs CIN	45	Under	—	31 (44%)
2024-12-08	14	vs JAX	102	Over	—	40 (63%)
2024-12-01	13	@ WAS	35	Under	—	40 (73%)
2024-11-24	12	@ HOU	119	Over	—	63 (94%)
2024-11-17	11	vs MIN	15	Under	—	37 (63%)
2024-11-10	10	@ LAC	44	Under	—	29 (54%)
2024-11-03	9	vs NE	128	Over	—	66 (86%)
2024-10-27	8	@ DET	94	Over	—	62 (82%)
2024-10-20	7	@ BUF	61	Over	—	65 (89%)
2024-10-13	6	vs IND	93	Over	—	43 (74%)
2024-09-30	4	@ MIA	88	Over	—	39 (60%)
2024-09-22	3	vs GB	14	Under	—	34 (63%)
2024-09-15	2	vs NYJ	62	Over	—	44 (67%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CHI	82	Over	—	39 (61%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 54.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.