NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Aaron Rodgers QB

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

0.5 Rush Yds O -108U -116

Hit rate · All 49%19/39 Odds imply 49.2% Over

Season avg: 3.6
Graph avg: 4.8
Graph median: 0.0-3–45
Over the close: 38%6/16

2026 per game

Pass Yds246.8▲+42.8

Att36.8▲+5.6

Cmp%59.8%▼-5.0

Pass TD2.0▲+0.6

INT0.8▲+0.3

Rush Yds3.6+0.0

Snaps65.2▲+8.2

Snap %98.6%▲+3.3

0.5

2024

-1

Sep 09
1

Sep 15
18

Sep 19
26

Sep 29
0

Oct 06
0

Oct 14
0

Oct 20
0

Oct 27
-1

Oct 31
0

Nov 10
7

Nov 17
6

Dec 01
0

Dec 08
45

Dec 15
6

Dec 22
0

Dec 29
0

Jan 05
2025

-1

Sep 07
3

Sep 14
1

Sep 21
8

Sep 28
1

Oct 12
6

Oct 16
0

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
8

Nov 16
0

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
0

Dec 15
9

Dec 21
6

Dec 28
20

Jan 04
0

Jan 12
2026

-3

Sep 13
5

Sep 20
10

Sep 27
0

Oct 01
6

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 0.5

Home 57% 12/21 · avg 5.5
Away 39% 7/18 · avg 3.9
vs TB No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 Today 49% 19/39
O 5.5 36% 14/39
O 10.5 10% 4/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TB

What TB allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds231.9#13
Yds/Att7.3#12
Cmp%66.5%#6
Pass TD1.6#13
Pass Att31.9#16

QBs vs TB · 2026

Each main QB who faced TB this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-7.1

Avg diff %-124%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Dak Prescott	0	16.5	-100%
Oct 04	Jordan Love	-8	1.5	-633%
Sep 27	Kyler Murray	17	25.3	-33%
Sep 20	Deshaun Watson	22	36.2	-39%
Sep 13	Joe Burrow	20	7.0	+186%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 0.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	6	Over	0.5	58 (97%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	0	Under	1.5	72 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	10	Over	0.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	5	Over	0.5	67 (96%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	-3	Under	0.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	0	Under	0.5	51 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	20	Over	19.5	75 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	6	Over	6.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	9	Over	0.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	0	Under	0.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	0	Under	0.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	0	Under	0.5	36 (84%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	8	Over	10.5	37 (57%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	0	Under	0.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	0	Under	0.5	62 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	0	Under	—	63 (100%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	6	Over	0.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	1	Over	—	56 (95%)
2025-09-28	4	vs MIN	8	Over	—	53 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	1	Over	—	54 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	3	Over	—	59 (95%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NYJ	-1	Under	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIA	0	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-29	17	@ BUF	0	Under	—	40 (63%)
2024-12-22	16	vs LA	6	Over	—	69 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ JAX	45	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIA	0	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SEA	6	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs IND	7	Over	—	51 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ ARI	0	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-10-31	9	vs HOU	-1	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ NE	0	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ PIT	0	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-14	6	vs BUF	0	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	@ MIN	0	Under	—	72 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs DEN	26	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-09-19	3	vs NE	18	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ TEN	1	Over	—	57 (100%)
2024-09-09	1	@ SF	-1	Under	—	38 (75%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 0.5Underdog 4.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.