NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kirk Cousins QB

LV vs BUF · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

1.5 Rush Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · All 21%6/29 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: -0.4
Graph avg: 0.2
Graph median: 0.0-11–16
Over the close: 31%4/13

2026 per game

Pass Yds253.8▲+81.7

Att34.4▲+7.5

Cmp%65.1%▲+3.4

Pass TD2.4▲+1.4

INT0.8▲+0.3

Rush Yds-0.4▼-1.1

Snaps67.0▲+12.7

Snap %96.6%▲+10.5

1.5

2024

0

Sep 08
-1

Sep 16
-1

Sep 22
0

Sep 29
0

Oct 03
-5

Oct 13
-1

Oct 20
16

Oct 27
-11

Nov 03
0

Nov 10
0

Nov 17
3

Dec 01
0

Dec 08
0

Dec 16
2025

0

Sep 21
2

Oct 26
2

Nov 16
5

Nov 23
0

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
0

Dec 11
-3

Dec 21
1

Dec 29
0

Jan 04
2026

-6

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
0

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 21% 3/14 · avg -0.8
Away 20% 3/15 · avg 1.1
vs BUF No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 Today 21% 6/29
O 6.5 3% 1/29
O 11.5 3% 1/29

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds229.2#15
Yds/Att6.5#26
Cmp%62.5%#21
Pass TD2.2#3
Pass Att35.5#6

QBs vs BUF · 2026

Each main QB who faced BUF this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+2.7

Avg diff %+35%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Matthew Stafford	0	5.2	-100%
Oct 04	Drake Maye	54	26.8	+102%
Sep 27	Justin Herbert	17	31.2	-46%
Sep 17	Jared Goff	7	2.2	+211%
Sep 13	C.J. Stroud	15	14.0	+7%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.5 yds	3%5.3 yds	5%7.0 yds
Short	30%5.6 yds	19%7.0 yds	35%5.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.5 yds#14	4%8.1 yds#32	9%9.2 yds#25
Short	30%5.5 yds#22	16%6.5 yds#20	35%5.4 yds#16

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%11.3 yds	3%5.4 yds	7%7.4 yds
Short	31%6.3 yds	22%7.4 yds	28%6.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	3	11.3	34	31.3%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	5	6.0	30	17.6%
3	Tre Tucker WR	5	5.6	28	16.4%
4	Michael Mayer TE	5	5.0	25	14.3%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	5	2.8	14	8.0%
8	Malik Benson WR	5	1.6	8	5.0%
9	Ian Thomas TE	3	1.3	4	3.5%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 29 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NE	0	Under	0.5	50 (83%)
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	0	Under	0.5	84 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	3	Over	1.5	70 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	1	Under	0.5	63 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	-6	Under	0.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	0	Under	2.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	1	Under	5.5	53 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	-3	Under	5.5	77 (100%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	0	Under	0.5	71 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	0	Under	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	0	Under	5.5	69 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	5	Over	0.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	2	Over	—	25 (38%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	2	Over	0.5	50 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	0	Under	—	15 (23%)
2024-12-16	15	@ LV	0	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIN	0	Under	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LAC	3	Over	—	81 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DEN	0	Under	—	46 (78%)
2024-11-10	10	@ NO	0	Under	—	78 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DAL	-11	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ TB	16	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs SEA	-1	Under	—	66 (90%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CAR	-5	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-10-03	5	vs TB	0	Under	—	87 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NO	0	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs KC	-1	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-16	2	@ PHI	-1	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs PIT	0	Under	—	56 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 0.5Underdog 0.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 2m ago.