NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Bo Nix QB

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

13.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · All 55%23/42 Odds imply —

Season avg: 6.2
Graph avg: 21.3
Graph median: 17.0-5–75
Over the close: 26%6/23

2026 per game

Pass Yds174.8▼-59.1

Att31.5▼-5.1

Cmp%60.3%▼-2.6

Pass TD1.0▼-0.6

INT0.5▼-0.2

Rush Yds6.2▼-15.2

Snaps61.2▼-5.9

Snap %99.7%+0.0

13.5

2024

47

Sep 22
3

Sep 29
9

Oct 06
61

Oct 13
75

Oct 17
4

Oct 27
36

Nov 03
-5

Nov 10
5

Nov 17
5

Nov 24
4

Dec 02
23

Dec 15
25

Dec 19
31

Dec 28
47

Jan 05
43

Jan 12
2025

18

Sep 07
20

Sep 14
33

Sep 21
7

Sep 29
22

Oct 05
24

Oct 12
48

Oct 19
-1

Oct 26
36

Nov 02
-2

Nov 06
8

Nov 16
16

Nov 30
15

Dec 07
10

Dec 14
11

Dec 21
42

Dec 25
49

Jan 04
29

Jan 17
2026

2

Sep 14
6

Sep 20
7

Sep 27
10

Oct 04
10

Oct 11
2

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Showing the latest 40 of 42 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 13.5

Home 38% 8/21 · avg 17.6
Away 71% 15/21 · avg 25.0
vs ARI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 86% 36/42
O 8.5 67% 28/42
O 13.5 Today 55% 23/42
O 18.5 48% 20/42
O 23.5 40% 17/42

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds252.9#6
Yds/Att8.1#2
Cmp%66.7%#4
Pass TD2.7#1
Pass Att31.2#24

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.4

Avg diff %-45%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Matthew Stafford	0	4.2	-100%
Oct 11	Jared Goff	1	3.8	-73%
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	0	11.5	-100%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	34	23.5	+45%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	29	27.8	+4%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.7 yds	1%12.2 yds	6%5.5 yds
Short	36%5.5 yds	11%3.6 yds	38%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 42 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 13.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	2	Under	13.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	10	Under	13.5	62 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	10	Under	16.5	65 (98%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	7	Under	16.5	67 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	6	Under	17.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	2	Under	18.5	51 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	29	Over	24.5	72 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	49	Over	49.5	59 (100%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	42	Over	35.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	11	Under	17.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	10	Under	—	68 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	15	Over	10.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	16	Over	16.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	8	Under	9.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	-2	Under	5.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	36	Over	5.5	63 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	-1	Under	5.5	59 (94%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	48	Over	4.5	81 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	24	Over	25.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	22	Over	25.5	74 (100%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	7	Under	15.5	81 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ LAC	33	Over	33.5	52 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ IND	20	Over	25.5	58 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TEN	18	Over	15.5	76 (100%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	@ BUF	43	Over	—	42 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs KC	47	Over	—	65 (88%)
2024-12-28	17	@ CIN	31	Over	—	60 (100%)
2024-12-19	16	@ LAC	25	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs IND	23	Over	—	63 (100%)
2024-12-02	13	vs CLE	4	Under	—	66 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ LV	5	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs ATL	5	Under	—	59 (95%)
2024-11-10	10	@ KC	-5	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ BAL	36	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs CAR	4	Under	—	73 (100%)
2024-10-17	7	@ NO	75	Over	—	63 (97%)
2024-10-13	6	vs LAC	61	Over	—	55 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs LV	9	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ NYJ	3	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ TB	47	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs PIT	25	Over	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ SEA	35	Over	—	69 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 13.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 5m ago.