NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Caleb Williams QB

CHI vs ATL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

19.5 Rush Yds O -109U -115

Hit rate · All 58%22/38 Odds imply 49.4% Over

Season avg: 53.5
Graph avg: 27.5
Graph median: 25.0-2–70
Over the close: 60%12/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds203.5▼-36.5

Att27.5▼-7.1

Cmp%65.5%▲+8.2

Pass TD1.0▼-0.6

INT0.5▼-0.1

Rush Yds53.5▲+29.9

Snaps69.5▲+1.0

Snap %93.0%▼-6.2

19.5

2024

15

Sep 08
44

Sep 15
8

Sep 22
12

Sep 29
34

Oct 06
56

Oct 13
47

Oct 27
5

Nov 03
15

Nov 10
70

Nov 17
33

Nov 24
39

Nov 28
27

Dec 08
3

Dec 16
34

Dec 22
37

Dec 26
10

Jan 05
2025

58

Sep 08
27

Sep 14
12

Sep 21
13

Sep 28
3

Oct 13
-2

Oct 19
24

Oct 26
53

Nov 02
63

Nov 09
26

Nov 16
21

Nov 23
13

Nov 28
15

Dec 07
13

Dec 14
30

Dec 20
18

Dec 28
1

Jan 04
20

Jan 10
40

Jan 18
2026

65

Sep 13
42

Sep 20
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 19.5

Home 65% 13/20 · avg 30.2
Away 50% 9/18 · avg 24.4
vs ATL No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 9.5 84% 32/38
O 14.5 68% 26/38
O 19.5 Today 58% 22/38
O 24.5 50% 19/38
O 29.5 42% 16/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds256.4#5
Yds/Att6.8#21
Cmp%60.7%#27
Pass TD1.8#7
Pass Att37.7#2

QBs vs ATL · 2026

Each main QB who faced ATL this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.1

Avg diff %-63%

Beat their average33% (1/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 05	Tyler Shough	5	16.8	-70%
Sep 20	Bryce Young	6	4.3	+38%
Sep 13	Aaron Rodgers	-3	5.2	-157%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.8 yds	6%12.2 yds	8%6.7 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	24%6.7 yds	32%5.6 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.8 yds#23	2%18.7 yds#8	10%11.2 yds#15
Short	32%6.2 yds#9	15%5.8 yds#26	30%4.8 yds#26

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.1 yds	6%14.3 yds	9%6.9 yds
Short	20%6.2 yds	19%5.2 yds	37%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	5	7.0	35	21.9%
2	Kalif Raymond WR	5	5.4	27	17.7%
3	Rome Odunze WR	5	5.8	29	17.5%
4	Colston Loveland TE	5	4.6	23	14.2%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	5	3.2	16	9.7%
6	Roschon Johnson RB	3	2.7	8	6.9%
7	Cole Kmet TE	5	1.8	9	5.9%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	4	1.2	5	4.0%
10	Jahdae Walker WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 19.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	42	Over	24.5	64 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	65	Over	19.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	40	Over	20.5	81 (100%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	20	Over	18.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	1	Under	2.5	55 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	18	Under	10.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	30	Over	17.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	13	Under	18.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	15	Under	—	70 (100%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	13	Under	24.5	87 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	21	Over	23.5	65 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	26	Over	30.5	75 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	63	Over	13.5	68 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ CIN	53	Over	40.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	24	Over	18.5	63 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	-2	Under	5.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	3	Under	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	13	Under	5.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DAL	12	Under	20.5	59 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DET	27	Over	30.5	57 (84%)
2025-09-08	1	vs MIN	58	Over	45.5	67 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ GB	10	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-12-26	17	vs SEA	37	Over	—	61 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs DET	34	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-16	15	@ MIN	3	Under	—	64 (96%)
2024-12-08	14	@ SF	27	Over	—	49 (92%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DET	39	Over	—	67 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs MIN	33	Over	—	76 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs GB	70	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NE	15	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ARI	5	Under	—	74 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ WAS	47	Over	—	63 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	vs JAX	56	Over	—	63 (95%)
2024-10-06	5	vs CAR	34	Over	—	72 (96%)
2024-09-29	4	vs LA	12	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ IND	8	Under	—	90 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ HOU	44	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs TEN	15	Under	—	56 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 19.5Underdog 19.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.