NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Christian McCaffrey RB

SF vs WAS · Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

59.5 Rush Yds O -115U -109

Hit rate · All 43%12/28 Odds imply 50.6% Over

Season avg: 57.2
Graph avg: 63.3
Graph median: 54.523–140
Over the close: 38%9/24

2026 per game

Carries12.2▼-5.5

Rush Yds57.2▼-10.4

Rush TD1.0▲+0.5

Targets5.0▼-2.5

Rec3.8▼-2.1

Rec Yds27.4▼-26.8

Snaps41.2▼-12.2

Snap %69.2%▼-12.5

59.5

2024

39

Nov 10
79

Nov 17
31

Nov 24
53

Dec 01
2025

69

Sep 07
55

Sep 14
52

Sep 21
49

Sep 28
57

Oct 02
54

Oct 12
129

Oct 19
25

Oct 26
106

Nov 02
30

Nov 09
81

Nov 16
89

Nov 24
53

Nov 30
73

Dec 14
117

Dec 22
140

Dec 28
23

Jan 03
48

Jan 11
35

Jan 17
2026

68

Sep 10
23

Sep 20
75

Sep 27
52

Oct 04
68

Oct 11
?

Oct 20

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 59.5

Home 50% 6/12 · avg 67.8
Away 38% 6/16 · avg 59.9
vs WAS No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 49.5 68% 19/28
O 54.5 50% 14/28
O 59.5 Today 43% 12/28
O 64.5 43% 12/28
O 69.5 32% 9/28

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs WAS

What WAS allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds102.7#9
Yds/Carry4.5#9
Rush TD0.8#11
Targets4.9#21
Rec Yds24.6#28

RBs vs WAS · 2026

Each main RB who faced WAS this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.2

Avg diff %+10%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Cam Skattebo	59	58.8	+0%
Oct 04	Jonathan Taylor	95	75.8	+25%
Sep 27	Emanuel Wilson	14	57.8	-76%
Sep 20	Javonte Williams	30	61.5	-51%
Sep 13	Saquon Barkley	83	33.0	+152%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.3 yds	5%29.4 yds	5%11.2 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.6 yds	26%5.6 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

WAS defense

WAS defense: Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%4.0 yds#31	4%18.8 yds#7	8%12.8 yds#10
Short	30%5.3 yds#24	16%8.9 yds#3	34%5.2 yds#22

Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%0.0 yds	0%	2%29.0 yds
Short	33%5.0 yds	28%6.1 yds	35%5.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	5	6.8	34	24.5%
2	George Kittle TE	5	5.6	28	20.7%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	5	5.0	25	18.0%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	5	4.0	20	14.3%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	2	1.5	3	5.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	5	1.0	5	3.7%
10	Luke Farrell TE	5	0.8	4	2.7%

Game log · 28 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 59.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ SEA	68	Over	49.5	49 (82%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	52	Under	65.5	49 (74%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	75	Over	57.5	45 (83%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	23	Under	59.5	27 (52%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	68	Over	59.5	36 (55%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	35	Under	55.5	31 (52%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	48	Under	51.5	52 (88%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	23	Under	23.5	36 (86%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	140	Over	142.5	61 (85%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	117	Over	130.5	53 (80%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	73	Over	66.5	62 (84%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	53	Under	55.5	53 (79%)
2025-11-24	12	vs CAR	89	Over	88.5	58 (83%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ARI	81	Over	60.5	39 (71%)
2025-11-09	10	vs LA	30	Under	35.5	49 (78%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NYG	106	Over	77.5	57 (86%)
2025-10-26	8	@ HOU	25	Under	68.5	46 (96%)
2025-10-19	7	vs ATL	129	Over	121.5	50 (75%)
2025-10-12	6	@ TB	54	Under	60.5	64 (93%)
2025-10-02	5	@ LA	57	Under	58.5	76 (88%)
2025-09-28	4	vs JAX	49	Under	55.5	56 (85%)
2025-09-21	3	vs ARI	52	Under	58.5	59 (91%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NO	55	Under	62.5	55 (77%)
2025-09-07	1	@ SEA	69	Over	61.5	58 (76%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BUF	53	Under	—	12 (25%)
2024-11-24	12	@ GB	31	Under	—	40 (82%)
2024-11-17	11	vs SEA	79	Over	—	59 (94%)
2024-11-10	10	@ TB	39	Under	—	56 (88%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 59.5PrizePicks 60.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.