NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jalen Hurts QB

PHI vs JAX · Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

27.5 Rush Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 26.2
Graph avg: 23.9
Graph median: 23.5-10–62
Over the close: 21%4/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds178.2▼-21.3

Att28.5▼-0.3

Cmp%59.6%▼-4.6

Pass TD1.8▲+0.2

INT0.8▲+0.4

Rush Yds26.2▲+0.7

Snaps59.5▼-1.6

Snap %98.0%▲+0.2

2025

15

Sep 14
40

Sep 21
62

Sep 28
3

Oct 05
13

Oct 09
-10

Oct 19
22

Oct 26
27

Nov 10
31

Nov 16
33

Nov 23
31

Nov 28
8

Dec 08
39

Dec 14
40

Dec 20
5

Dec 28
14

Jan 11
2026

46

Sep 13
16

Sep 20
25

Sep 28
18

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 27.5

Home 76% 16/21 · avg 41.0
Away 42% 8/19 · avg 26.5
vs JAX 100% 1/1 · avg 67.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 60% 12/20
O 22.5 50% 10/20
O 27.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 32.5 30% 6/20
O 37.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds242.7#10
Yds/Att6.9#19
Cmp%65.9%#11
Pass TD0.7#31
Pass Att35.2#4

QBs vs JAX · 2026

Each main QB who faced JAX this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.5

Avg diff %-19%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Joe Burrow	6	10.7	-44%
Sep 27	Drake Maye	18	39.3	-54%
Sep 20	Bo Nix	6	6.3	-5%
Sep 13	Deshaun Watson	38	29.7	+28%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PHI offense

PHI offense: Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.3 yds	2%10.1 yds	10%11.3 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	14%7.1 yds	35%4.5 yds

Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.7 yds#18	3%17.9 yds#9	9%12.1 yds#12
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	13%5.2 yds#29	31%5.3 yds#18

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.1 yds	3%9.9 yds	10%10.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	15%6.8 yds	34%4.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of PHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DeVonta Smith WR	3	9.0	27	32.5%
2	Dontayvion Wicks WR	4	5.0	20	19.0%
3	Makai Lemon WR	4	3.8	15	15.3%
4	Dallas Goedert TE	2	3.5	7	14.3%
5	Zach Ertz TE	2	3.0	6	12.0%
6	Darius Cooper WR	4	2.5	10	9.2%
7	Saquon Barkley RB	4	1.8	7	6.7%
8	Will Shipley RB	4	1.5	6	5.6%
9	Johnny Mundt TE	3	1.3	4	4.3%
10	Tank Bigsby RB	4	1.0	4	3.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 27.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs LA	18	Under	26.5	61 (100%)
2026-09-28	3	@ CHI	25	Under	24.5	46 (92%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TEN	16	Under	29.5	76 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs WAS	46	Over	29.5	55 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	14	Under	14.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	5	Under	10.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	40	Over	42.5	66 (94%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LV	39	Over	40.5	52 (75%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	8	Under	10.5	71 (100%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	31	Over	25.5	54 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	33	Over	36.5	63 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs DET	31	Over	32.5	72 (100%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	27	Under	—	63 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYG	22	Under	25.5	55 (93%)
2025-10-19	7	@ MIN	-10	Under	35.5	50 (100%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	13	Under	25.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	3	Under	8.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	62	Over	65.5	57 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LA	40	Over	39.5	67 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ KC	15	Under	25.5	60 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 26.5PrizePicks 27.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.