NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jalen Hurts QB

PHI vs JAX · Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

27.5 Rush Yds O -113U -113

Hit rate · All 60%24/40 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 26.2
Graph avg: 34.1
Graph median: 33.0-10–85
Over the close: 25%5/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds178.2▼-21.3

Att28.5▼-0.3

Cmp%59.6%▼-4.6

Pass TD1.8▲+0.2

INT0.8▲+0.4

Rush Yds26.2▲+0.7

Snaps59.5▼-1.6

Snap %98.0%▲+0.2

2024

33

Sep 06
85

Sep 16
25

Sep 22
20

Sep 29
33

Oct 13
22

Oct 20
37

Oct 27
67

Nov 03
56

Nov 10
39

Nov 14
39

Nov 24
29

Dec 01
59

Dec 08
45

Dec 15
41

Dec 22
36

Jan 12
70

Jan 19
16

Jan 26
72

Feb 09
2025

62

Sep 04
15

Sep 14
40

Sep 21
62

Sep 28
3

Oct 05
13

Oct 09
-10

Oct 19
22

Oct 26
27

Nov 10
31

Nov 16
33

Nov 23
31

Nov 28
8

Dec 08
39

Dec 14
40

Dec 20
5

Dec 28
14

Jan 11
2026

46

Sep 13
16

Sep 20
25

Sep 28
18

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 27.5

Home 76% 16/21 · avg 41.0
Away 42% 8/19 · avg 26.5
vs JAX 100% 1/1 · avg 67.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 78% 31/40
O 22.5 68% 27/40
O 27.5 Today 60% 24/40
O 32.5 52% 21/40
O 37.5 40% 16/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds242.7#10
Yds/Att6.9#19
Cmp%65.9%#11
Pass TD0.7#31
Pass Att35.2#4

QBs vs JAX · 2026

Each main QB who faced JAX this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.5

Avg diff %-19%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Joe Burrow	6	10.7	-44%
Sep 27	Drake Maye	18	39.3	-54%
Sep 20	Bo Nix	6	6.3	-5%
Sep 13	Deshaun Watson	38	29.7	+28%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PHI offense

PHI offense: Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.3 yds	2%10.1 yds	10%11.3 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	14%7.1 yds	35%4.5 yds

Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.7 yds#18	3%17.9 yds#9	9%12.1 yds#12
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	13%5.2 yds#29	31%5.3 yds#18

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.1 yds	3%9.9 yds	10%10.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	15%6.8 yds	34%4.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of PHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DeVonta Smith WR	3	9.0	27	32.5%
2	Dontayvion Wicks WR	4	5.0	20	19.0%
3	Makai Lemon WR	4	3.8	15	15.3%
4	Dallas Goedert TE	2	3.5	7	14.3%
5	Zach Ertz TE	2	3.0	6	12.0%
6	Darius Cooper WR	4	2.5	10	9.2%
7	Saquon Barkley RB	4	1.8	7	6.7%
8	Will Shipley RB	4	1.5	6	5.6%
9	Johnny Mundt TE	3	1.3	4	4.3%
10	Tank Bigsby RB	4	1.0	4	3.5%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 27.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs LA	18	Under	26.5	61 (100%)
2026-09-28	3	@ CHI	25	Under	24.5	46 (92%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TEN	16	Under	29.5	76 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs WAS	46	Over	29.5	55 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	14	Under	14.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	5	Under	10.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	40	Over	42.5	66 (94%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LV	39	Over	40.5	52 (75%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	8	Under	10.5	71 (100%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	31	Over	25.5	54 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	33	Over	36.5	63 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs DET	31	Over	32.5	72 (100%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	27	Under	—	63 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYG	22	Under	25.5	55 (93%)
2025-10-19	7	@ MIN	-10	Under	35.5	50 (100%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	13	Under	25.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	3	Under	8.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	62	Over	65.5	57 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LA	40	Over	39.5	67 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ KC	15	Under	25.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-04	1	vs DAL	62	Over	40.5	63 (100%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	vs KC	72	Over	—	67 (91%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs WAS	16	Under	—	66 (93%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs LA	70	Over	—	63 (100%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs GB	36	Over	—	60 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ WAS	41	Over	—	12 (16%)
2024-12-15	15	vs PIT	45	Over	—	80 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CAR	59	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BAL	29	Over	—	56 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ LA	39	Over	—	71 (97%)
2024-11-14	11	vs WAS	39	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ DAL	56	Over	—	54 (79%)
2024-11-03	9	vs JAX	67	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ CIN	37	Over	—	61 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ NYG	22	Under	—	54 (82%)
2024-10-13	6	vs CLE	33	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ TB	20	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ NO	25	Under	—	72 (100%)
2024-09-16	2	vs ATL	85	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-09-06	1	vs GB	33	Over	—	76 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 26.5PrizePicks 27.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 10m ago.