NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jacoby Brissett QB

ARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

8.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 48%12/25 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 10.8
Graph avg: 10.9
Graph median: 7.0-2–32
Over the close: 50%7/14

2026 per game

Pass Yds204.5▼-35.9

Att38.0▲+3.4

Cmp%67.8%▲+2.8

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT1.0▲+0.4

Rush Yds10.8▼-1.2

Snaps69.5▲+11.5

Snap %100.0%▲+14.3

2024

32

Sep 08
6

Sep 15
0

Sep 19
3

Sep 29
10

Oct 06
11

Oct 27
0

Dec 28
2025

2

Sep 14
0

Oct 05
19

Oct 12
26

Oct 19
4

Nov 03
31

Nov 09
-2

Nov 16
20

Nov 23
16

Nov 30
22

Dec 07
6

Dec 14
5

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
19

Jan 04
2026

14

Sep 13
7

Sep 20
4

Sep 27
18

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 8.5

Home 42% 5/12 · avg 8.9
Away 54% 7/13 · avg 12.8
vs DET No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 72% 18/25
O 8.5 Today 48% 12/25
O 13.5 40% 10/25
O 18.5 28% 7/25

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs DET

What DET allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds281.5#1
Yds/Att7.6#8
Cmp%65.9%#10
Pass TD2.1#4
Pass Att37.0#3

QBs vs DET · 2026

Each main QB who faced DET this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+10.3

Avg diff %+66%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Bryce Young	3	5.3	-44%
Sep 27	Geno Smith	12	8.0	+50%
Sep 17	Josh Allen	69	16.3	+322%
Sep 13	Tyler Shough	8	21.3	-62%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.0 yds	2%15.2 yds	8%7.4 yds
Short	28%6.4 yds	20%5.0 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DET defense

DET defense: Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%7.4 yds#28	5%16.9 yds#10	8%19.9 yds#1
Short	26%4.9 yds#28	16%7.9 yds#10	38%5.3 yds#19

Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.0 yds	2%13.4 yds	8%7.4 yds
Short	28%6.4 yds	20%5.0 yds	36%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	4	11.5	46	32.5%
2	Michael Wilson WR	4	11.0	44	29.2%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	3	4.7	14	13.1%
4	Jeremiyah Love RB	4	3.2	13	8.8%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Tyler Allgeier RB	4	2.5	10	6.7%
7	Elijah Higgins TE	3	1.7	5	3.9%
8	Hunter Long TE	4	0.5	2	1.2%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	3	0.3	1	0.7%

Game log · 25 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 8.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	18	Over	7.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	4	Under	7.5	87 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	7	Under	9.5	50 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	14	Over	10.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	19	Over	10.5	55 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	0	Under	11.5	57 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	5	Under	5.5	57 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	6	Under	12.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	22	Over	20.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TB	16	Over	12.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs JAX	20	Over	10.5	82 (98%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SF	-2	Under	5.5	79 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SEA	31	Over	13.5	73 (96%)
2025-11-03	9	@ DAL	4	Under	—	67 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs GB	26	Over	—	76 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ IND	19	Over	19.5	73 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	0	Under	—	3 (4%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	2	Under	—	1 (2%)
2024-12-28	17	vs LAC	0	Under	—	10 (19%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NYJ	11	Over	—	47 (70%)
2024-10-06	5	vs MIA	10	Over	—	60 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ SF	3	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-09-19	3	@ NYJ	0	Under	—	36 (69%)
2024-09-15	2	vs SEA	6	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CIN	32	Over	—	65 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 7.5Underdog 9.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 9m ago.