NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tyler Allgeier RB

ARI vs DET · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

27.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 50%19/38 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 28.0
Graph avg: 33.4
Graph median: 28.0-1–105
Over the close: 48%10/21

2026 per game

Carries8.0▼-0.4

Rush Yds28.0▼-2.2

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets2.5▲+1.6

Rec2.5▲+1.7

Rec Yds8.8▲+3.1

Snaps35.8▲+16.5

Snap %53.5%▲+23.3

2024

21

Sep 08
53

Sep 16
32

Sep 22
60

Sep 29
12

Oct 03
105

Oct 13
36

Oct 20
33

Oct 27
18

Nov 03
59

Nov 10
0

Nov 17
16

Dec 01
63

Dec 08
43

Dec 16
22

Dec 22
19

Dec 29
52

Jan 05
2025

24

Sep 07
76

Sep 14
4

Sep 21
51

Sep 28
32

Oct 13
16

Oct 19
4

Oct 26
6

Nov 02
57

Nov 09
10

Nov 16
44

Nov 23
20

Nov 30
34

Dec 07
18

Dec 11
79

Dec 21
23

Dec 29
16

Jan 04
2026

61

Sep 13
10

Sep 20
-1

Sep 27
42

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 27.5

Home 39% 7/18 · avg 26.3
Away 60% 12/20 · avg 39.9
vs DET No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 71% 27/38
O 22.5 55% 21/38
O 27.5 Today 50% 19/38
O 32.5 45% 17/38
O 37.5 37% 14/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs DET

What DET allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds102.8#11
Yds/Carry4.8#4
Rush TD1.1#5
Targets4.7#25
Rec Yds21.8#31

RBs vs DET · 2026

Each main RB who faced DET this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+18.0

Avg diff %+26%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Chuba Hubbard	122	61.3	+99%
Sep 27	Breece Hall	32	65.5	-51%
Sep 17	James Cook	135	95.3	+42%
Sep 13	Travis Etienne	46	41.0	+12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.0 yds	2%15.2 yds	8%7.4 yds
Short	28%6.4 yds	20%5.0 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DET defense

DET defense: Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%7.4 yds#28	5%16.9 yds#10	8%19.9 yds#1
Short	26%4.9 yds#28	16%7.9 yds#10	38%5.3 yds#19

Throws DET faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	50%2.9 yds	5%12.0 yds	45%7.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	4	11.5	46	32.5%
2	Michael Wilson WR	4	11.0	44	29.2%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	3	4.7	14	13.1%
4	Jeremiyah Love RB	4	3.2	13	8.8%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Tyler Allgeier RB	4	2.5	10	6.7%
7	Elijah Higgins TE	3	1.7	5	3.9%
8	Hunter Long TE	4	0.5	2	1.2%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	3	0.3	1	0.7%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 27.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	42	Over	21.5	36 (55%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	-1	Under	34.5	31 (36%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	10	Under	34.5	32 (64%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	61	Over	34.5	44 (59%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	16	Under	32.5	23 (37%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	23	Under	25.5	19 (36%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	79	Over	75.5	31 (40%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	18	Under	5.5	12 (17%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	34	Over	28.5	25 (39%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	20	Under	30.5	17 (25%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	44	Over	25.5	22 (39%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	10	Under	32.5	14 (21%)
2025-11-09	10	@ IND	57	Over	30.5	23 (37%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NE	6	Under	10.5	17 (30%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	4	Under	10.5	20 (40%)
2025-10-19	7	@ SF	16	Under	20.5	15 (23%)
2025-10-13	6	vs BUF	32	Over	25.5	22 (31%)
2025-09-28	4	vs WAS	51	Over	35.5	21 (32%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	4	Under	10.5	6 (9%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIN	76	Over	30.5	22 (33%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TB	24	Under	24.5	19 (25%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CAR	52	Over	—	17 (22%)
2024-12-29	17	@ WAS	19	Under	—	8 (13%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NYG	22	Under	—	18 (27%)
2024-12-16	15	@ LV	43	Over	—	15 (26%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIN	63	Over	—	13 (18%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LAC	16	Under	—	24 (30%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DEN	0	Under	—	4 (7%)
2024-11-10	10	@ NO	59	Over	—	18 (23%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DAL	18	Under	—	14 (25%)
2024-10-27	8	@ TB	33	Over	—	22 (35%)
2024-10-20	7	vs SEA	36	Over	—	17 (23%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CAR	105	Over	—	29 (41%)
2024-10-03	5	vs TB	12	Under	—	31 (36%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NO	60	Over	—	21 (38%)
2024-09-22	3	vs KC	32	Over	—	13 (21%)
2024-09-16	2	@ PHI	53	Over	—	13 (21%)
2024-09-08	1	vs PIT	21	Under	—	10 (18%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 27.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 11m ago.