NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

James Cook III RB

BUF vs LAR · Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

75.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 55%23/42 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 105.2
Graph avg: 83.0
Graph median: 80.015–216
Over the close: 41%9/22

2026 per game

Carries17.5▼-0.8

Rush Yds105.2▲+11.4

Rush TD0.8▲+0.1

Targets2.5▲+0.1

Rec1.5▼-0.4

Rec Yds6.0▼-10.8

Snaps44.0▲+5.7

Snap %68.0%▲+10.3

2024

39

Sep 23
39

Sep 29
82

Oct 06
32

Oct 20
111

Oct 27
44

Nov 03
80

Nov 10
20

Nov 17
107

Dec 01
20

Dec 08
105

Dec 15
100

Dec 22
53

Dec 29
28

Jan 05
120

Jan 12
67

Jan 19
85

Jan 26
2025

44

Sep 07
132

Sep 14
108

Sep 18
117

Sep 28
49

Oct 05
87

Oct 13
216

Oct 26
114

Nov 02
53

Nov 09
48

Nov 16
116

Nov 20
144

Nov 30
80

Dec 07
107

Dec 14
117

Dec 21
74

Dec 28
15

Jan 04
46

Jan 11
117

Jan 17
2026

57

Sep 13
135

Sep 17
154

Sep 27
75

Oct 04
?

Oct 13

Showing the latest 40 of 42 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 75.5

Home 41% 9/22 · avg 75.7
Away 70% 14/20 · avg 91.0
vs LAR 0% 0/1 · avg 20.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 55.5 67% 28/42
O 65.5 64% 27/42
O 75.5 Today 55% 23/42
O 85.5 43% 18/42
O 95.5 40% 17/42

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds97.4#15
Yds/Carry4.4#17
Rush TD0.6#17
Targets6.7#5
Rec Yds41.8#2

RBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main RB who faced LAR this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-12.7

Avg diff %-16%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Saquon Barkley	8	58.0	-86%
Sep 27	J.K. Dobbins	49	37.3	+31%
Sep 21	Cam Skattebo	36	66.3	-46%
Sep 10	Christian McCaffrey	68	50.0	+36%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%18.7 yds	7%16.8 yds
Short	29%7.2 yds	13%7.3 yds	37%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	4%16.3 yds#14	8%6.9 yds#30
Short	31%6.0 yds#11	20%4.6 yds#31	30%5.8 yds#12

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	37%4.4 yds	4%0.0 yds	56%4.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	4	5.8	23	20.3%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	4	4.8	19	17.1%
4	Keon Coleman WR	4	4.0	16	14.0%
5	Ty Johnson RB	2	3.0	6	11.0%
6	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
7	James Cook RB	4	2.5	10	8.9%
8	Dawson Knox TE	4	1.5	6	5.3%
9	Jackson Hawes TE	1	1.0	1	3.8%
10	Ray Davis RB	3	0.3	1	1.1%

Game log · 42 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 75.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	75	Under	85.5	35 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	154	Over	79.5	44 (67%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	135	Over	79.5	55 (74%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	57	Under	74.5	42 (72%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	117	Over	76.5	50 (64%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	46	Under	48.5	38 (60%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	15	Under	—	2 (3%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	74	Under	87.5	39 (51%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	117	Over	120.5	28 (56%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	107	Over	84.5	47 (67%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	80	Over	75.5	48 (75%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	144	Over	155.5	45 (61%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	116	Over	115.5	36 (55%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	48	Under	25.5	37 (66%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	53	Under	50.5	34 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	114	Over	115.5	50 (76%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	216	Over	235.5	28 (44%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	87	Over	90.5	30 (53%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	49	Under	50.5	49 (72%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	117	Over	116.5	43 (73%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	108	Over	110.5	40 (67%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	132	Over	144.5	35 (47%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	44	Under	45.5	48 (56%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	85	Over	—	33 (45%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	67	Under	—	32 (52%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs DEN	120	Over	—	34 (45%)
2025-01-05	18	@ NE	28	Under	—	15 (22%)
2024-12-29	17	vs NYJ	53	Under	—	32 (46%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NE	100	Over	—	21 (36%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DET	105	Over	—	29 (41%)
2024-12-08	14	@ LA	20	Under	—	27 (45%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SF	107	Over	—	26 (45%)
2024-11-17	11	vs KC	20	Under	—	27 (37%)
2024-11-10	10	@ IND	80	Over	—	41 (55%)
2024-11-03	9	vs MIA	44	Under	—	36 (55%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SEA	111	Over	—	42 (55%)
2024-10-20	7	vs TEN	32	Under	—	29 (53%)
2024-10-06	5	@ HOU	82	Over	—	36 (59%)
2024-09-29	4	@ BAL	39	Under	—	33 (56%)
2024-09-23	3	vs JAX	39	Under	—	32 (50%)
2024-09-12	2	@ MIA	78	Over	—	21 (47%)
2024-09-08	1	vs ARI	71	Under	—	38 (61%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 75.5Underdog 75.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 10m ago.