NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jahmyr Gibbs RB

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

90.5 Rush Yds O -110U -114

Hit rate · All 33%13/39 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 88.2
Graph avg: 79.3
Graph median: 71.02–219
Over the close: 47%9/19

2026 per game

Carries20.0▲+5.7

Rush Yds88.2▲+16.3

Rush TD1.2▲+0.5

Targets7.0▲+1.5

Rec5.5▲+1.0

Rec Yds46.8▲+10.5

Snaps54.5▲+11.1

Snap %78.2%▲+11.2

2024

40

Sep 08
84

Sep 15
83

Sep 22
78

Sep 30
63

Oct 13
116

Oct 20
127

Oct 27
65

Nov 03
71

Nov 10
69

Nov 17
90

Nov 24
87

Nov 28
43

Dec 05
31

Dec 15
109

Dec 22
117

Dec 30
139

Jan 05
105

Jan 18
2025

19

Sep 07
94

Sep 14
67

Sep 22
91

Sep 28
54

Oct 05
65

Oct 12
136

Oct 20
25

Nov 02
142

Nov 09
39

Nov 16
219

Nov 23
68

Nov 27
43

Dec 04
38

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
41

Dec 25
80

Jan 04
2026

156

Sep 13
52

Sep 17
99

Sep 27
46

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 90.5

Home 45% 9/20 · avg 86.8
Away 21% 4/19 · avg 71.4
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 83.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 70.5 51% 20/39
O 80.5 44% 17/39
O 90.5 Today 33% 13/39
O 100.5 26% 10/39
O 110.5 20% 8/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds123.2#2
Yds/Carry4.6#9
Rush TD0.9#9
Targets5.3#15
Rec Yds34.9#11

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+5.7

Avg diff %+19%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	58	59.0	-2%
Sep 27	Christian McCaffrey	75	47.7	+57%
Sep 20	Jadarian Price	52	33.5	+55%
Sep 13	Omarion Hampton	43	65.0	-34%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	34%4.7 yds	39%7.9 yds	27%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 90.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	46	Under	96.5	62 (87%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	99	Over	89.5	45 (69%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	52	Under	89.5	54 (83%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	156	Over	85.5	57 (74%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	80	Under	60.5	52 (71%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	41	Under	72.5	44 (69%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	2	Under	75.5	64 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	38	Under	72.5	52 (81%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	43	Under	30.5	43 (69%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	68	Under	—	44 (70%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	219	Over	147.5	50 (74%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	39	Under	39.5	43 (73%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	142	Over	115.5	35 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	25	Under	25.5	42 (66%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	136	Over	57.5	38 (56%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	65	Under	65.5	37 (69%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	54	Under	60.5	32 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	91	Over	90.5	37 (62%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	67	Under	68.5	47 (69%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	94	Over	75.5	33 (56%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	19	Under	—	44 (66%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	105	Over	—	52 (75%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIN	139	Over	—	45 (66%)
2024-12-30	17	@ SF	117	Over	—	37 (52%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CHI	109	Over	—	45 (69%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	31	Under	—	59 (75%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	43	Under	—	45 (56%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	87	Under	—	32 (46%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	90	Under	—	48 (67%)
2024-11-17	11	vs JAX	69	Under	—	33 (42%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	71	Under	—	39 (60%)
2024-11-03	9	@ GB	65	Under	—	22 (39%)
2024-10-27	8	vs TEN	127	Over	—	19 (40%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	116	Over	—	33 (58%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	63	Under	—	37 (54%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	78	Under	—	30 (57%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	83	Under	—	31 (46%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	84	Under	—	53 (62%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	40	Under	—	31 (51%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 89.5PrizePicks 90.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.