NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Drake Maye QB

NE vs LV · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

31.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 34.0
Graph avg: 32.7
Graph median: 26.52–66
Over the close: 55%11/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds213.5▼-35.2

Att29.2▲+0.1

Cmp%62.4%▼-6.9

Pass TD1.0▼-0.8

INT1.8▲+1.2

Rush Yds34.0▲+4.1

Snaps63.2▲+0.7

Snap %95.2%▼-1.3

2025

28

Oct 12
62

Oct 19
50

Oct 26
20

Nov 02
13

Nov 09
2

Nov 13
22

Nov 23
12

Dec 01
43

Dec 14
25

Dec 21
22

Dec 28
41

Jan 04
66

Jan 11
10

Jan 18
65

Jan 25
37

Feb 08
2026

47

Sep 09
17

Sep 20
18

Sep 27
54

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 31.5

Home 53% 10/19 · avg 29.8
Away 26% 5/19 · avg 32.5
vs LV 0% 0/1 · avg 11.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 21.5 65% 13/20
O 26.5 50% 10/20
O 31.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 36.5 45% 9/20
O 41.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LV

What LV allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds201.2#28
Yds/Att6.7#20
Cmp%66.6%#5
Pass TD1.3#22
Pass Att29.9#29

QBs vs LV · 2026

Each main QB who faced LV this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.4

Avg diff %+17%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Patrick Mahomes	0	13.7	-100%
Sep 27	Tyler Shough	36	12.0	+200%
Sep 20	Justin Herbert	2	28.7	-93%
Sep 13	Malik Willis	39	24.3	+60%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.4 yds	4%10.0 yds	11%11.9 yds
Short	30%6.1 yds	16%7.9 yds	28%6.1 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%15.4 yds#3	4%11.7 yds#27	6%5.0 yds#31
Short	34%5.7 yds#18	15%6.2 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#22

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%11.0 yds	4%9.0 yds	11%12.7 yds
Short	30%5.9 yds	16%7.9 yds	28%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Romeo Doubs WR	4	5.0	20	16.8%
2	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	4	4.2	17	14.3%
4	Hunter Henry TE	4	3.8	15	13.5%
5	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	4	4.0	16	13.2%
6	A.J. Brown WR	1	4.0	4	12.9%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	3	2.3	7	7.5%
9	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%
10	Kyle Williams WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 31.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	54	Over	27.5	76 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	18	Under	26.5	51 (81%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	17	Under	27.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	47	Over	26.5	71 (100%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	37	Over	35.5	71 (100%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	65	Over	29.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	10	Under	36.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	66	Over	68.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	41	Over	16.5	45 (76%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	22	Under	24.5	52 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	25	Under	15.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	43	Over	43.5	52 (100%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	12	Under	11.5	65 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	22	Under	15.5	71 (100%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	2	Under	4.5	67 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	13	Under	14.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	20	Under	22.5	68 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	50	Over	28.5	68 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	62	Over	23.5	55 (85%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	28	Under	24.5	64 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 31.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 13m ago.