NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

C.J. Stroud QB

HOU vs TEN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

9.5 Rush Yds O -120U -105

Hit rate · Last 20 70%14/20 Odds imply 51.6% Over

Season avg: 16.5
Graph avg: 14.3
Graph median: 11.50–32
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds285.2▲+66.3

Att37.8▲+6.4

Cmp%61.6%▼-1.0

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-0.8

Rush Yds16.5▲+2.8

Snaps67.0▲+3.8

Snap %100.0%▲+7.7

2025

32

Sep 07
27

Sep 15
22

Sep 21
11

Sep 28
30

Oct 05
25

Oct 20
30

Oct 26
12

Nov 02
0

Nov 30
5

Dec 07
10

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
0

Dec 27
5

Jan 04
0

Jan 12
11

Jan 18
2026

15

Sep 13
29

Sep 20
10

Sep 27
12

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 9.5

Home 63% 12/19 · avg 13.7
Away 65% 13/20 · avg 17.1
vs TEN 67% 2/3 · avg 9.7

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 80% 16/20
O 9.5 Today 70% 14/20
O 14.5 40% 8/20
O 19.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds250.0#6
Yds/Att8.5#2
Cmp%69.4%#3
Pass TD1.7#8
Pass Att29.4#30

QBs vs TEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced TEN this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.0

Avg diff %+644%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Lamar Jackson	20	41.3	-52%
Sep 27	Jameis Winston	14	0.5	+2700%
Sep 20	Jalen Hurts	16	29.7	-46%
Sep 13	Geno Smith	7	9.7	-28%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%4.9 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.7 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.7 yds#12	4%24.2 yds#3	8%14.8 yds#5
Short	33%6.5 yds#7	16%9.4 yds#3	32%5.8 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%5.0 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	2	9.0	18	28.9%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	4	6.5	26	19.4%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	4	6.8	27	17.3%
4	Jared Wayne WR	3	4.0	12	10.9%
5	Kayshon Boutte WR	4	3.2	13	9.7%
6	Jaylin Noel WR	4	3.0	12	8.7%
7	Foster Moreau TE	4	2.2	9	7.3%
8	Woody Marks RB	4	2.2	9	5.6%
9	David Montgomery RB	4	1.8	7	5.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 9.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	12	Over	10.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	10	Over	10.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	29	Over	11.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	15	Over	10.5	79 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	11	Over	9.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	0	Under	0.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	5	Under	7.5	44 (65%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	0	Under	5.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	0	Under	10.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	10	Over	10.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	5	Under	10.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	0	Under	5.5	76 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	12	Over	15.5	23 (32%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	30	Over	30.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	25	Over	—	76 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	30	Over	14.5	56 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	11	Over	15.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ JAX	22	Over	17.5	63 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	vs TB	27	Over	27.5	49 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ LA	32	Over	35.5	63 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 9.5Underdog 9.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.