NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

C.J. Stroud QB

HOU vs TEN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

9.5 Rush Yds O -120U -105

Hit rate · All 64%25/39 Odds imply 51.6% Over

Season avg: 16.5
Graph avg: 15.5
Graph median: 12.0-10–59
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds285.2▲+66.3

Att37.8▲+6.4

Cmp%61.6%▼-1.0

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-0.8

Rush Yds16.5▲+2.8

Snaps67.0▲+3.8

Snap %100.0%▲+7.7

2024

13

Sep 08
-1

Sep 15
12

Sep 22
17

Sep 29
27

Oct 06
7

Oct 13
19

Oct 20
-10

Oct 27
59

Oct 31
5

Nov 10
26

Nov 18
18

Nov 24
7

Dec 01
4

Dec 15
23

Dec 21
7

Dec 25
0

Jan 05
42

Jan 11
42

Jan 18
2025

32

Sep 07
27

Sep 15
22

Sep 21
11

Sep 28
30

Oct 05
25

Oct 20
30

Oct 26
12

Nov 02
0

Nov 30
5

Dec 07
10

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
0

Dec 27
5

Jan 04
0

Jan 12
11

Jan 18
2026

15

Sep 13
29

Sep 20
10

Sep 27
12

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 9.5

Home 63% 12/19 · avg 13.7
Away 65% 13/20 · avg 17.1
vs TEN 67% 2/3 · avg 9.7

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 80% 31/39
O 9.5 Today 64% 25/39
O 14.5 44% 17/39
O 19.5 33% 13/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds250.0#6
Yds/Att8.5#2
Cmp%69.4%#3
Pass TD1.7#8
Pass Att29.4#30

QBs vs TEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced TEN this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.0

Avg diff %+644%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Lamar Jackson	20	41.3	-52%
Sep 27	Jameis Winston	14	0.5	+2700%
Sep 20	Jalen Hurts	16	29.7	-46%
Sep 13	Geno Smith	7	9.7	-28%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%4.9 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.7 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.7 yds#12	4%24.2 yds#3	8%14.8 yds#5
Short	33%6.5 yds#7	16%9.4 yds#3	32%5.8 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%5.0 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	2	9.0	18	28.9%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	4	6.5	26	19.4%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	4	6.8	27	17.3%
4	Jared Wayne WR	3	4.0	12	10.9%
5	Kayshon Boutte WR	4	3.2	13	9.7%
6	Jaylin Noel WR	4	3.0	12	8.7%
7	Foster Moreau TE	4	2.2	9	7.3%
8	Woody Marks RB	4	2.2	9	5.6%
9	David Montgomery RB	4	1.8	7	5.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 9.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	12	Over	10.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	10	Over	10.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	29	Over	11.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	15	Over	10.5	79 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	11	Over	9.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	0	Under	0.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	5	Under	7.5	44 (65%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	0	Under	5.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	0	Under	10.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	10	Over	10.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	5	Under	10.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	0	Under	5.5	76 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	12	Over	15.5	23 (32%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	30	Over	30.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	25	Over	—	76 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	30	Over	14.5	56 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	11	Over	15.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ JAX	22	Over	17.5	63 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	vs TB	27	Over	27.5	49 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ LA	32	Over	35.5	63 (100%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	@ KC	42	Over	—	68 (100%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	42	Over	—	73 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ TEN	0	Under	—	11 (18%)
2024-12-25	17	vs BAL	7	Under	—	49 (88%)
2024-12-21	16	@ KC	23	Over	—	59 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs MIA	4	Under	—	50 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ JAX	7	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs TEN	18	Over	—	56 (100%)
2024-11-18	11	@ DAL	26	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DET	5	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-10-31	9	@ NYJ	59	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs IND	-10	Under	—	71 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ GB	19	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ NE	7	Under	—	63 (95%)
2024-10-06	5	vs BUF	27	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs JAX	17	Over	—	75 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ MIN	12	Over	—	54 (81%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CHI	-1	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ IND	13	Over	—	79 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 9.5Underdog 9.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.