NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Allen QB

BUF vs LAR · Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

36.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 46%19/41 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 29.5
Graph avg: 34.9
Graph median: 31.01–82
Over the close: 54%12/22

2026 per game

Pass Yds259.8▲+25.1

Att29.8▲+0.1

Cmp%66.4%▼-3.3

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds29.5▼-8.2

Snaps64.2▼-1.0

Snap %100.0%▲+1.9

2024

2

Sep 12
44

Sep 23
21

Sep 29
54

Oct 06
18

Oct 14
1

Oct 20
25

Oct 27
7

Nov 03
50

Nov 10
55

Nov 17
18

Dec 01
82

Dec 08
68

Dec 15
30

Dec 22
17

Dec 29
46

Jan 12
20

Jan 19
39

Jan 26
2025

30

Sep 07
59

Sep 14
25

Sep 18
45

Sep 28
53

Oct 05
42

Oct 13
7

Oct 26
19

Nov 02
31

Nov 09
40

Nov 16
20

Nov 20
38

Nov 30
78

Dec 07
48

Dec 14
17

Dec 21
27

Dec 28
33

Jan 11
66

Jan 17
2026

23

Sep 13
69

Sep 17
22

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
?

Oct 13

Showing the latest 40 of 41 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 36.5

Home 43% 9/21 · avg 32.8
Away 50% 10/20 · avg 37.1
vs LAR 100% 1/1 · avg 82.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 26.5 58% 24/41
O 31.5 49% 20/41
O 36.5 Today 46% 19/41
O 41.5 37% 15/41
O 46.5 27% 11/41

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds212.1#22
Yds/Att6.4#23
Cmp%58.8%#28
Pass TD1.8#7
Pass Att33.0#13

QBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAR this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.5

Avg diff %-28%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jalen Hurts	18	29.0	-38%
Sep 27	Bo Nix	7	6.0	+17%
Sep 21	Jameis Winston	1	7.0	-86%
Sep 10	Brock Purdy	29	31.0	-6%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%18.7 yds	7%16.8 yds
Short	29%7.2 yds	13%7.3 yds	37%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	4%16.3 yds#14	8%6.9 yds#30
Short	31%6.0 yds#11	20%4.6 yds#31	30%5.8 yds#12

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%5.2 yds	7%17.0 yds	7%15.6 yds
Short	29%8.1 yds	12%7.4 yds	38%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	4	5.8	23	20.3%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	4	4.8	19	17.1%
4	Keon Coleman WR	4	4.0	16	14.0%
5	Ty Johnson RB	2	3.0	6	11.0%
6	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
7	James Cook RB	4	2.5	10	8.9%
8	Dawson Knox TE	4	1.5	6	5.3%
9	Jackson Hawes TE	1	1.0	1	3.8%
10	Ray Davis RB	3	0.3	1	1.1%

Game log · 41 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 36.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	4	Under	31.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	22	Under	33.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	69	Over	31.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	23	Under	30.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	66	Over	36.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	33	Under	26.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	27	Under	33.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	17	Under	16.5	50 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	48	Over	38.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	78	Over	25.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	38	Over	37.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	20	Under	20.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	40	Over	35.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	31	Under	31.5	65 (96%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	19	Under	19.5	66 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	7	Under	31.5	52 (83%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	42	Over	20.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	53	Over	53.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	45	Over	48.5	59 (100%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	25	Under	23.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	59	Over	56.5	65 (87%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	30	Under	25.5	85 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	39	Over	—	73 (100%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	20	Under	—	61 (100%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs DEN	46	Over	—	71 (93%)
2024-12-29	17	vs NYJ	17	Under	—	60 (86%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NE	30	Under	—	59 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DET	68	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ LA	82	Over	—	60 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SF	18	Under	—	43 (74%)
2024-11-17	11	vs KC	55	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ IND	50	Over	—	73 (99%)
2024-11-03	9	vs MIA	7	Under	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SEA	25	Under	—	69 (91%)
2024-10-20	7	vs TEN	1	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-10-14	6	@ NYJ	18	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	@ HOU	54	Over	—	60 (98%)
2024-09-29	4	@ BAL	21	Under	—	51 (86%)
2024-09-23	3	vs JAX	44	Over	—	56 (88%)
2024-09-12	2	@ MIA	2	Under	—	41 (91%)
2024-09-08	1	vs ARI	39	Over	—	62 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 36.5Underdog 36.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 15m ago.