NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

David Montgomery RB

HOU vs TEN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

44.5 Rush Yds O -115U -115

Hit rate · All 36%13/36 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 31.8
Graph avg: 45.7
Graph median: 34.04–151
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Carries11.8▲+2.5

Rush Yds31.8▼-10.4

Rush TD0.5+0.0

Targets1.8+0.0

Rec1.8▲+0.3

Rec Yds16.8▲+5.5

Snaps36.5▲+12.5

Snap %55.0%▲+17.9

2024

91

Sep 08
35

Sep 15
105

Sep 22
40

Sep 30
80

Oct 13
31

Oct 20
33

Oct 27
73

Nov 03
32

Nov 10
75

Nov 17
37

Nov 24
88

Nov 28
51

Dec 05
4

Dec 15
28

Jan 18
2025

25

Sep 07
57

Sep 14
151

Sep 22
12

Sep 28
65

Oct 05
24

Oct 12
21

Oct 20
40

Nov 02
71

Nov 09
27

Nov 16
18

Nov 23
32

Nov 27
60

Dec 04
32

Dec 14
14

Dec 21
25

Dec 25
42

Jan 04
2026

60

Sep 13
10

Sep 20
33

Sep 27
24

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 44.5

Home 35% 7/20 · avg 39.6
Away 38% 6/16 · avg 53.3
vs TEN 0% 0/1 · avg 33.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 34.5 50% 18/36
O 39.5 44% 16/36
O 44.5 Today 36% 13/36
O 49.5 36% 13/36
O 54.5 33% 12/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds75.6#26
Yds/Carry3.4#32
Rush TD0.7#15
Targets4.4#29
Rec Yds32.8#14

RBs vs TEN · 2026

Each main RB who faced TEN this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.7

Avg diff %+32%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Derrick Henry	73	100.3	-27%
Sep 27	Cam Skattebo	60	58.3	+3%
Sep 20	Saquon Barkley	9	57.7	-84%
Sep 13	Breece Hall	102	30.5	+234%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%4.9 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.7 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.7 yds#12	4%24.2 yds#3	8%14.8 yds#5
Short	33%6.5 yds#7	16%9.4 yds#3	32%5.8 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	28%9.6 yds	39%6.0 yds	33%7.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	2	9.0	18	28.9%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	4	6.5	26	19.4%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	4	6.8	27	17.3%
4	Jared Wayne WR	3	4.0	12	10.9%
5	Kayshon Boutte WR	4	3.2	13	9.7%
6	Jaylin Noel WR	4	3.0	12	8.7%
7	Foster Moreau TE	4	2.2	9	7.3%
8	Woody Marks RB	4	2.2	9	5.6%
9	David Montgomery RB	4	1.8	7	5.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 44.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	24	Under	44.5	31 (56%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	33	Under	50.5	34 (63%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	10	Under	63.5	42 (52%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	60	Over	55.5	39 (49%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	42	Under	35.5	31 (42%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	25	Under	33.5	22 (34%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	14	Under	15.5	13 (18%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	32	Under	29.5	18 (28%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	60	Over	67.5	19 (31%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	32	Under	—	24 (38%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	18	Under	18.5	23 (34%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	27	Under	27.5	23 (39%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	71	Over	60.5	38 (54%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	40	Under	40.5	24 (38%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	21	Under	43.5	30 (44%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	24	Under	27.5	17 (31%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	65	Over	55.5	33 (53%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	12	Under	18.5	20 (33%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	151	Over	124.5	25 (37%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	57	Over	62.5	23 (39%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	25	Under	—	25 (37%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	28	Under	—	17 (25%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	4	Under	—	24 (30%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	51	Over	—	36 (45%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	88	Over	—	38 (54%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	37	Under	—	21 (29%)
2024-11-17	11	vs JAX	75	Over	—	31 (39%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	32	Under	—	26 (40%)
2024-11-03	9	@ GB	73	Over	—	32 (56%)
2024-10-27	8	vs TEN	33	Under	—	23 (48%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	31	Under	—	22 (39%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	80	Over	—	21 (31%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	40	Under	—	21 (40%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	105	Over	—	35 (51%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	35	Under	—	30 (35%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	91	Over	—	30 (49%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 45.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 10m ago.